MPR poll: Wellstone leads Boschwitz.
Jon Gordon, 9/5/96

The Minnesota Public Radio-Pioneer Press-KARE 11 poll shows Senator Paul Wellstone has opened up a nine percentage point lead over Republican challenger Rudy Boschwitz, and leads Boschwitz in all regions of the state. Minnesota Public Radio's Jon Gordon reports.

FORTY-SIX PERCENT OF POLL RESONDENTS SAY THEY'D VOTE FOR WELLSTONE IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY. BOSCHWITZ TRAILS AT 37 PERCENT. FOUR PERCENT SUPPORT REFORM PARTY CANDIDATE DEAN BARKELY, AND 13 PERCENT ARE UNDECIDED. JOE KUNKEL, WHO CHAIRS THE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT AT MANKATO STATE UNIVERSITY, SAYS BOSCHWITZ SHOULD NOT WORRY TOO MUCH ABOUT THE 9-POINT DEFICIT, BECAUSE THE CAMPAIGN HAS NOT BEGUN IN EARNEST. KUNKEL SAYS BOSCHWITZ HAS YET TO UNLEASH HIS BIG GUNS.

0811 "They havent started to beat up on Wellstone significantly. There's going to be a barrage of television advertising like nothing we've ever seen before. And that hasn't really started yet."

THE POLL SHOWS WELLSTONE IN GOOD SHAPE IN ALL REGIONS OF MINNESOTA. FORTY-EIGHT PERCENT SAY THEY'D VOTE FOR WELLSTONE IN DULUTH AND THE NORTHEAST, COMPARED WITH 35% FOR BOSCHWITZ. 47 PERCENT OF TWIN CITIES RESIDENTS GO FOR WELLSTONE, 45 PERCENT IN ROCHESTER AND THE SOUTHEAST, 44 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST AND 42 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. KUNKEL SAYS THE FAIRLY EVEN GEOGRAPHICAL SUPPORT FOR THE INCUMBENT DEMOCRATIC SENATOR IS A BIT SURPRISING.

0810 "Particularly with the Rochester/Southeast are of the state, I would expect Boschwitz to be a more popular candidate there. I think as you look at the southwest which is a fairly republican area you see a 3 percentage point difference there which is probably within the margin of error of your poll so the race is quite close there. But it IS surprising there's not more of a difference between northern Minnesota and southern Minnesota here."

CRAIG GRAU, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA IS DULUTH, SAYS WELLSTONE'S STATEWIDE SUPPORT MIGHT STEM FROM A GOOD ECONOMY - WHERE NO PART OF THE STATE LAGS SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND ANOTHER. AND HE SAYS THEIR MIGHT BE A COATAIL FACTOR AT PLAY.

0805 "The economy is good. Clinton from everything I would guess is running pretty good in the sate and um both of them are democrats so that they get that kind of residual support from the economy."

SIXTEEN PERCENT OF POLL RESPONDENTS RATED THE ECONOMY AND JOBS THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN THE RACE, SECOND ONLY TO A CATEGORY CALLED TAXES-GOVERNMENT SPENDING-DEFICIT. SOMEWHAT SUPRISINGLY, ONLY FOUR PERCENT SAY ABORTION IS THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE.

WELLSTONE'S CONTINUED STRONG SUPPORT IN THE NORTH MIGHT INDICATE HIS MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD POSITION ON THE BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS DISPUTE HAS NOT HURT HIM SIGNIFICANTLY. ONLY FOUR PERCENT OF THOSE POLLED SAID THE ENVIRONMENT IS THEIR MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE. GRAU SAYS THE BWCA ISSUE HAS COOLED DOWN SINCE THE FEDERAL MEDIATION PROCESS BEGAN.

WHAT SHOULD BOSCHWITZ DO TO CLOSE THE GAP? JOE KUNKEL OF MANKATO STATE SAYS 'STAY THE COURSE.'

0812 "If I were advising Boschwitz we would say but uh we've got a plan and we're gonna implement it."

CRAIG GRAU AT U-M-D HAS A DIFFERENT IDEA:

0807 "I would advise them to get Jack Kemp in the state to emphasize the tax cut issue. [GORDON:Why should he do that?] I think identifying with Kemp is going to be better than identifying with Dole. The presidential race is going to overshadow a lot that happens this year. Kemp republicanism would go over well in Minnesota."

ACCORDING TO THE POLL, 47 PERCENT THINK WELLSTONE IS DOING A GOOD OR EXCELLENT JOB AS U-S SENATOR. 53 PERCENT RATE HIM AS FAIR OR POOR. THIS IS FURTHER PROOF THAT WELLSTONE IS A POLARIZING FIGURE, AND EVIDENCE WELLSTONE VERSUS BOSCHWITZ WILL BE A TIGHT RACE.

JON GORDON, MPR