MPR Poll reactions: Is third party dead in MN?
Jon Gordon, 9/6/96

The MPR-Pioneer Press-Kare 11 poll shows President Clinton is clobbering Bob Dole in Minnesota. Fifty-two percent of those polled say they prefer Clinton, while 32 percent say they favor Dole. Seven percent would vote for Reform party candidate Ross Perot. Minnesota Public Radio's Jon Gordon reports.

IT'S NO SURPRISE CLINTON HOLDS A WIDE LEAD IN MINNESOTA, A STATE THAT GOES STRONGLY FOR DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES. BUT ROSS PEROT'S MEASLY SEVEN PERCENT - CONTRASTED WITH THE 24 PERCENT OF THE VOTE HE GOT HERE IN 1994 - IS NOtable. PHIL MADSEN IS SECRETARY OF THE REFORM PARTY IN MINNESOTA.

1049 "Perot is certainly not the candidate that he was in 1992. He's acumulated a lot more negatives since he first got into the race. There's no denying he's not doing as well as he used to."

ONLY 10 PERCENT OF THOSE POLLED HAVE A FAVORABLE IMPRESSION OF PEROT.

THE REFORM PARTY'S SHOWCASE CANDIDATE IN MINNESOTA, DEAN BARKLEY, ISN'T POLLING TOO WELL EITHER. ONLY FOUR PERCENT SAY THEY'D VOTE FOR HIM OVER PAUL WELLSTONE OR RUDY BOSCHWITZ IN THE SENATE RACE. HE DOESN'T MATCH UP WELL EVEN AGAINST LESSER KNOWN CANDIDATES SUCH AS STEVE YOUNG AND MONTI MORENO. MADSEN SAYS HE'S BAFFLED BARKLEY ISN'T DOING BETTER IN THE POLLS. HE SAYS IT MIGHT BE THAT THIS POLITICAL SEASON IS MORE CIVIL THAN 1994, GIVING VOTERS ONE LESS REASON TO CONSIDER THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES. BARKLEY IS ALSO DOING POORLY IN THE MONEY-RAISING GAME. BUT UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR STEPHEN SMITH SAYS HE EXPECTS BARKLEY CAN DO BETTER, PERHAPS GETTING 10 OR 15 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN NOVEMBER.

1045 "He'll eventually get some ads on. If he manages to get some free coverage because he's allowed to participate in the debates with candidates from the two major parties that will help him a great deal as well, because the two of them will probably chew each other up and he'll try to stay above the fray and he'll look quite Senatorial in doing so I think."

BUT SMITH SAYS THERE'S A LIMIT TO HOW WELL BARKLEY AND OTHER REFORM CANDIDATES CAN DO.

1043 "They want to represent the center of the spectrum but when the center issues become popular the two major parties and their candidates find ways of usurping them. So I think the very success of a reform party to the extent that it represents the middle of the political spectrum is it's own doom because it's almost certainly going to produce a movement in the direction on the part of the two major parties."

PHIL MADSEN OF THE REFORM PARTY ADMITS THE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS ARE CO-OPTING MANY OF THE REFORM PARTY'S ISSUES, AND STEALING MUCH OF ITS THUNDER. BUT HE SAYS THE DONKEYS AND THE ELEPHANTS CAN'T TAKE AWAY ONE KEY REFORM PARTY ISSUE - BECAUSE IT'S A POISON PILL:

1050 "Campaign finance reform - the way that they maintain the power structure in the two party system is with the corrupt money flow that's going on with the PACS and the campaign contributions that basically force TV campaigns and all the competition out if you can't afford it. The only people who can afford are those who give favors to the PACS in order to get the big contributions in the first place. That kind of a corrupt and incestuous system that bothe the Democrats and Republicans engage in - they could not afford to adopt the reforms we are talking about."

MADSEN SAYS THE FUTURE OF THE REFORM PARTY IS IN WINNING STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS. IT'S FIELDING MORE THAN 30 CANDIDATES IN MINNESOTA THIS YEAR. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS MAINTAINING MAJOR PARTY STATUS IN MINNESOTA - WHICH ENTITLES THE PARTY TO STATE FUNDING THAT DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS RECEIVE. IN ORDER TO KEEP THAT STATUS, EITHER BARKLEY OR PEROT HAVE TO RECEIVE FIVE PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE RACES. THE POLL SHOWS PEROT AT SEVEN PERCENT, AND SINCE PEROT'S UNLIKELY TO ATTRACT LOTS OF NEW VOTERS, HE EITHER STAYS AT SEVEN PERCENT OR GOES DOWN. BARKLEY IS POLLING AT JUST FOUR PERCENT. IN 1994 HE RECEIVED FIVE PERCENT OF THE VOTE.

THE MPR-PIONEER PRESS-KARE 11 POLL WAS CONDUCTED OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT HAS A MARGIN OF ERROR OF FOUR PERCENTAGE POINTS. MORE THAN 800 LIKELY VOTERS WERE INTERVIEWED.

JON GORDON MINNESOTA PUBLIC RADIO