Does a presidential candidate make a difference in the economy?
Chris Farrell, 9/13/96

You want prosperity? You want growth? Bill Clinton and Bob Dole argue that the outcome of the contest for the presidency will make a big difference to the economy's performance. Minnesota Public Radio's Chris Farrell takes a skeptical look.

As election day approaches, the candidates are talking more and more about the economy. Little wonder, says Joseph Peshek, political scientist at Hamline University.

The economy is on the right track for Bill Clinton. During his first term, more than 10 million jobs have been created and the stock market has soared into record territory. Bob Dole, however, charges that workers are anxious and growth lackluster. The Clinton economy has expanded at a slower pace than during the Reagan and Bush years. Dole says only a dose of supply-side economics can restore the economy's vigor.

A clear choice with vastly different economic implications: Stay the course versus tax cuts and trust.

Perhaps. Yet in strictly economic terms, it seems it may not make much difference which of these two middle-of-the-road politicians is president. Steven Schier, political scientist at Carlton College, says neither favors an activist government.

What's more, Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan wields far more influence over the economy's direction than the president. And the Fed takes its cue from the $41 trillion dollar global capital market. Hamline University's Peshek says the growing role of international trade in the economy will affect any president.

Alfred Marcus, professor of strategic management and organization at the Carlton School of Management, adds that presidents have little choice but to support free trade and open markets.

Their approach to entitlements, such as Medicare and Social Security, would have a similar overall economic impact, too. Steven Scheir says the details of the Medicare reform proposals backed by Clinton and Dole last year differed somewhat, but the financial savings were not all that far apart.

Campaign rhetoric aside, the credo of these two politicians who would govern from the center would seem to seems to be: In all things economic, observe moderation.

For Minnesota Public Radio, I'm Chris Farrell.