Analysis | Statewide Name Recognition | Democrats Name Recognition
Republicans Name Recognition | Governor's Performance | Candidate Comparisons
Important Issues | Poll Methodology

ANALYSIS
Minnesota Governor Arne Carlson, finishing his last year in office, receives a commendable job approval rating from voters. Statewide, 59% rate the job Carlson is doing as either "excellent" or "good," while 34% rate it as "fair" and just 7% rate it "poor."

CARLSON JOB RATING    EXCELLENT    GOOD    FAIR    POOR    UNDECIDED
February '92          3%           19%     50%     25%     3%
September '92         3            26      49      18      4
May '94               7            44      39      10      -
September '95         9            46      34      11      - 
January '96           8            49      33      10      - 
May '96               14           48      27      11      -
June '97              10           41      37      11      1
February '98          13           46      34      7       - 

Of the DFL candidates seeking Carlson's job, popular Attorney General Hubert H. Humphrey, III is the front-runner. Among likely Democratic primary voters, Humphrey is capturing 35%, compared to 11% for State Sen. Ted Mondale, another son of a former vice president, with the rest of the field, including 1994 nominee John Marty, in single digits.

On the Republican side St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman enjoys a large lead over Lt. Gov. Joanne Benson, 37% to 14%, with Allen Quist, a conservative who challenged Carlson in the primary four years ago, at 11%.

In a general election match-up between the two front-runners, Humphrey currently leads Coleman 39% to 33%. Voters indicated that "education" and "taxes" will be foremost in their minds when casting a vote in the gubernatorial election this year.

                       RECOGNIZE    RECOGNIZE      RECOGNIZE    DON'T
                       FAVORABLE    UNFAVORABLE    NEUTRAL      RECOGNIZE
Hubert Humphrey III    50%          15%            32%          3%
Norm Coleman           43           13             27           17
Ted Mondale            37           9              41           13
Joanne Benson          33           8              34           25
Mark Dayton            26           14             36           24
Mike Freeman           18           2              35           45
Alan Quist             17           23             31           29
John Marty             16           12             41           31
Doug Johnson           12           5              29           54
Roy Terwilliger        7            6              34           53

                       RECOGNIZE    RECOGNIZE      RECOGNIZE    DON'T
                       FAVORABLE    UNFAVORABLE    NEUTRAL      RECOGNIZE
Hubert Humphrey III    63%          6%             31%          - 
Ted Mondale            51           4              34           11
Mark Dayton            37           9              41           13
Mike Freeman           29           1              30           40
Doug Johnson           22           4              36           38
John Marty             17           9              47           27

QUESTION: If you were voting today for the Democratic nominee for governor in 1998, which of the following candidates would get your vote: (LIST READ, ORDER ROTATED)

                       STATE    MEN    WOMEN 
Hubert Humphrey III    35%      29%    41%
Ted Mondale            11       13     9
Mike Freeman           9        10     8
Mark Dayton            7        6      8
Doug Johnson           6        6      6
John Marty             5        4      6 
Undecided              27       32     22

                   RECOGNIZE    RECOGNIZE      RECOGNIZE    DON'T
                   FAVORABLE    UNFAVORABLE    NEUTRAL      RECOGNIZE
Norm Coleman       51%          8%             31%          10%
Joanne Benson      32           10             31           27
Allen Quist        24           28             32           16
Roy Terwilliger    18           6              35           41

QUESTION: If you were voting today for the Republican nominee for governor in 1998, which of the following candidates would get your vote: (LIST READ, ORDER ROTATED)

                   STATE    MEN    WOMEN 
Norm Coleman       37%      38%    36%
Joanne Benson      14       16     12
Allen Quist        11       9      13
Roy Terwilliger    4        5      3
Undecided          34       32     36

             STATE    MEN    WOMEN
Excellent    13%      17%    9%
Good         46       44     48
Fair         34       33     35
Poor         7        6      8  
Undecided    -        -      - 

             STATE    MEN    WOMEN
Humphrey     39%      37%    41%
Coleman      33       36     30
Undecided    28       27     29

2. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Hubert Humphrey III, the DFL Party candidate and Joanne Benson, the Republican?

             STATE    MEN    WOMEN
Humphrey     49%      50%    48%
Benson       25       28     22
Undecided    26       22     30

3. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Ted Mondale, the DFL Party candidate and Joanne Benson, the Republican?

             STATE    MEN    WOMEN
Coleman      34%      37%    31%
Mondale      33       31     35
Undecided    33       32     34

4. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governer were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Ted Mondale, the DFL Party candidate and Joanne Benson, the Republican?

             STATE    MEN    WOMEN
Mondale      37%      37%    37% 
Benson       26       30     22
Undecided    37       33     41 

5. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Mike Freeman, the DFL Party candidate and Norm Coleman, the Republican?

             STATE    MEN    WOMEN
Coleman      36%      38%    34%
Freeman      29       28     30
Undecided    35       34     36	

6. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Mike Freeman, the DFL Party candidate and Joanne Benson, the Republican?

             STATE    MEN    WOMEN
Freeman      30%      29%    31%
Benson       27       30     24
Undecided    43       41     45

                                    STATE     MEN     WOMEN
Education                           25%       20%     30%
Taxes/govt spending                 23        29      17
Crime/drugs                         8         9       7
Health care                         7         5       9
Leadership record                   6         4       8
Character of the candidate          4         4       4
Economic development                4         6       2
Social welfare                      3         2       4
Environment                         3         3       3
Candidate's party                   2         3       1
Position on a new sports stadium    2         3       1
No answer                           13        12      14

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender grouping.

This survey also includes an over-sampling of 319 "likely" 1998 DFL primary voters (plus-or-minus 5.6%) and 301 "likely" 1998 Republican primary voters (plus-or-minus 5.8%). These over-samplings were only on questions pertaining to the primary races.

SAMPLE FIGURES
Men: 411 (50%); Women: 416 (50%)

REGION
Minneapolis-St. Paul: 457 interviews
Rochester/Southeast: 95 interviews
Southwest Minnesota: 89 interviews
Northwest Minnesota: 90 interviews
Duluth/Northeast: 96 interviews

REGIONAL GROUPINGS
MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL: Voters in Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, Wright, Sherburne, Carver, Dakota, Anoka, and Washington Counties.

ROCHESTER/SOUTHEAST: Voters in Goodhue, Rice, Le Sueur, Blue Earth, Waseca, Freeborn, Steele, Dodge, Mower, Fillmore, Olmstead, Houston, Winona, and Wabasha Counties.

SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA: Voters in Rock, Nobles, Jackson, Martin, Faribault, Watonwan, Cottonwood, Murray, Pipestone, Lincoln, Lyon, Redwood, Brown, Nicollet, McLeod, Renville, Sibley, Meeker, Kandiyohi, Chippewa, Yellow Medicine, Lac Qui Parle, Swift, Bit Stone, Traverse, Stevens, Pope, Douglas, and Grant Counties.

NORTHWEST MINNESOTA: Voters in Benton, Stearns, Morrison, Todd, Wadena, Otter Tail, Wilkin, Clay, Becker, Hubbard, Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Clearwater, Mahnomen, Norman, Polk, Red Lake, Pennington, Marshall, Roseau, and Kittson Counties.

DULUTH/NORTHEAST: Voters in Cook, Lake, St. Louis, Koochiching, Itasca, Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Carlton, Pine, Kanabec, Mille Lacs, Isanti, and Chisago Counties.

Poll Copyright 1998, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved