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1998 Governor Race
Poll commissioned by Minnesota Public Radio,
KARE 11, and Pioneer Press
June 3, 1998
Analysis |
Statewide Name Recognition |
Democrats Name Recognition
Republican Name Recognition |
Governor's Performance |
Candidate Comparisons
Important Issues |
Tobacco Lawsuit |
Poll Methodology
ANALYSIS
Governor Arne Carlson continues to get good marks from voters for the job he is doing. Statewide, 59% rate his performance in office as either "excellent" or "good," while 32% rate it "only fair" and 9% rate it "poor."
CARLSON JOB RATING EXCELLENT GOOD FAIR POOR UNDECIDED February '92 3% 19% 50% 25% 3% September '92 3 26 49 18 4 May '94 7 44 39 10 - September '95 9 46 34 11 - January '96 8 49 33 10 - May '96 14 48 27 11 - June '97 10 41 37 11 1 February '98 13 46 34 7 - June '98 15 44 32 9 -
Well-liked Attorney General Hubert H. Humphrey, III remains the front-runner to replace Carlson. He leads in his party's primary and captures the biggest vote in general election match-ups.
Among likely Democratic primary voters, Humphrey has 32% of the vote, with Mike Freeman at 13%, State Sen. Ted Mondale getting 12%, and Mark Dayton at 10%.
Among Republicans, St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman continues his lead over Lt. Gov. Joannne Benson, 39% to 20%, with Allen Quist at 13%.
In a general election match-up between Humphrey, Coleman and Reform Party candidate Jesse Ventura, Humphrey is up with 46%. Voters say that "taxes" and "education" are still the most important issues, and 30% say that Humphrey's role in the state's lawsuit against the tobacco industry makes them more likely to vote for him, while 21% say it makes them less likely to support him.
STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION
I am going to read you the names of several individuals who are active in public life. After I mention each name, I would simply like you to tell me if you recognize that individual. If you do recognize a name, I will then ask you if you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of that person.
RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE
Hubert Humphrey III 56% 19% 24% 1%
Norm Coleman 39 18 27 16
Ted Mondale 33 13 47 7
Mark Dayton 32 19 35 14
Joanne Benson 30 11 37 22
Jesse Ventura 21 19 40 20
Mike Freeman 19 3 36 42
John Marty 17 14 37 32
Alan Quist 15 26 32 27
Doug Johnson 10 8 26 56
Dick Borrell 7 4 20 69
STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION - DEMOCRATS
(asked of 326 DFL primary voters)
I am going to read you the names of several individuals who are active in public life. After I mention each name, I would simply like you to tell me if you recognize that individual. If you do recognize a name, I will then ask you if you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of that person.
RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE
Hubert Humphrey III 65% 13% 22% -
Ted Mondale 46 10 39 5
Mark Dayton 42 11 36 11
Mike Freeman 31 1 29 39
John Marty 24 8 42 26
Doug Johnson 16 7 34 43
QUESTION: If you were voting today for the Democratic nominee for governor in 1998, which of the following candidates would get your vote: (LIST READ, ORDER ROTATED)
STATE MEN WOMEN
Hubert Humphrey III 32% 30% 34%
Mike Freeman 13 15 11
Ted Mondale 12 11 13
Mark Dayton 10 11 9
Doug Johnson 4 3 5
John Marty 3 2 4
Undecided 26 28 24
STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION - REPUBLICANS
(asked of 309 Republican primary voters)
I am going to read you the names of several individuals who are active in public life. After I mention each name, I would simply like you to tell me if you recognize that individual. If you do recognize a name, I will then ask you if you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of that person.
RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE
Norm Coleman 52% 9% 32% 7%
Joanne Benson 39 8 30 23
Allen Quist 26 20 36 18
Dick Borrell 14 4 21 61
QUESTION: If you were voting today for the Republican nominee for governor in 1998, which of the following candidates would get your vote: (LIST READ, ORDER ROTATED)
STATE MEN WOMEN
Norm Coleman 39% 39% 39%
Joanne Benson 20 18 22
Allen Quist 13 16 10
Dick Borrell 2 3 1
Undecided 26 24 28
GOVERNOR'S PERFORMANCE
QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of Arne Carlson as governor; excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?
STATE MEN WOMEN
Excellent 15% 20% 10%
Good 44 42 46
Fair 32 30 34
Poor 9 8 10
Undecided - - -
CANDIDATE COMPARISONS
1. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Hubert Humphrey III, the DFL Party candidate; Norm Coleman, the Republican; and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?
STATE MEN WOMEN
Humphrey 46% 47% 45%
Coleman 30 28 32
Ventura 7 11 3
Undecided 17 14 20
2. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Hubert Humphrey III, the DFL Party candidate; Joanne Benson, the Republican; and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?
STATE MEN WOMEN
Humphrey 55% 55% 55%
Benson 20 21 19
Ventura 10 13 7
Undecided 15 11 19
3. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Hubert Humphrey III, the DFL Party candidate; Allen Quist, the Republican; and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?
STATE MEN WOMEN
Humphrey 56% 54% 58%
Quist 17 19 15
Ventura 12 15 9
Undecided 15 12 18
4. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Ted Mondale, the DFL Party candidate; Norm Coleman, the Republican; and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?
STATE MEN WOMEN
Mondale 37% 37% 37%
Coleman 36 37 35
Ventura 11 15 7
Undecided 16 11 21
5. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Ted Mondale, the DFL Party candidate; Joanne Benson, the Republican; and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?
STATE MEN WOMEN
Mondale 45% 43% 47%
Benson 24 26 22
Ventura 11 15 7
Undecided 20 16 24
6. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Ted Mondale, the DFL Party candidate; Allen Quist, the Republican; and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?
STATE MEN WOMEN
Mondale 51% 46% 56%
Quist 18 21 15
Ventura 12 16 8
Undecided 19 17 21
7. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Mike Freeman, the DFL Party candidate; Norm Coleman, the Republican; and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?
STATE MEN WOMEN
Freeman 39% 40% 38%
Coleman 30 29 31
Ventura 13 17 9
Undecided 18 14 22
8. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Mike Freeman, the DFL Party candidate; Joanne Benson, the Republican; and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?
STATE MEN WOMEN
Freeman 35% 33% 37%
Benson 28 30 26
Ventura 13 16 10
Undecided 24 21 27
9. QUESTION: If the 1998 election for governor were held today, whom would you vote for if the choice were between Mike Freeman, the DFL Party candidate; Allen Quist, the Republican; and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?
STATE MEN WOMEN
Freeman 36% 31% 41%
Quist 19 22 16
Ventura 14 17 11
Undecided 31 30 32
IMPORTANT ISSUES
QUESTION: What issue will be the single most important to you when deciding how to vote in the governor's race?
STATE MEN WOMEN
Taxes/govt spending 30% 37% 23%
Education 29 24 34
Health care 7 5 9
Economic development 6 9 3
Crime/drugs 4 3 5
Social welfare 4 1 7
Character of the candidate 3 4 2
Leadership record 3 4 2
Environment 2 2 2
Candidate's party 1 1 1
No answer 11 10 12
TOBACCO LAWSUIT
QUESTION: How did the settlement of the state of Minnesota's lawsuit against the tobacco industry effect your vote for Hubert Humphrey III. Would you say it makes you more likely to vote for Humphrey, less likely to vote for Humphrey, or does it have no real effect on your vote?
STATE MEN WOMEN
More likely 30% 32% 28%
Less likely 21 19 23
No effect 49 49 49
POLL METHODOLOGY
The Mason-Dixon Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. of Columbia, Maryland from May 30 through June 1, 1998. A total of 806 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they regularly vote in state elections.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95% probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender grouping.
This survey also includes an over-sampling of 326 "likely" 1998 DFL primary voters (plus-or-minus 5.5%) and 309 "likely" 1998 Republican primary voters (plus-or-minus 5.7%). These over-samplings were only on questions pertaining to the primary races.
SAMPLE FIGURES
Men: 403 (50%); Women: 403 (50%)
REGION
Minneapolis-St. Paul: 442 interviews
Rochester/Southeast: 93 interviews
Southwest Minnesota: 88 interviews
Northwest Minnesota: 89 interviews
Duluth/Northeast: 94 interviews
PLEASE NOTE: This report is the property of Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. It is not for duplication and/or redistribution. Copies of this report are available only through subscription. Subscribers are prohibited from providing this document to any third party. Any party in in unauthorized possession, engaging in unauthorized use. or involved in the unauthorized duplication or transmission of this document is subject to all applicable criminal and civil penalties.
Poll Copyright 1998, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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