Candidate Analysis | Poll Results | Name Recognition
Issue Analysis | Issue Results | Poll Methodology

CANDIDATE ANALYSIS

Attorney General Skip Humphrey continues to be the frontrunner in the race for the DFL nomination for Governor. But Mark Dayton has made surprising gains since last June's convention and moves into the #2 role. Endorsee Mike Freeman turns in unimpressive numbers. There's also trouble for Republican Norm Coleman who, while easily ahead in the polls for the Republican nomination, has been unable to overtake Humphrey, Dayton, and Ted Mondale on the question of hypothetical November matchups

CANDIDATE RESULTS

QUESTION (to 317 likely DFL Primary voters): If you were voting 
today for the Democratic nominee for Governor in 1998, which of 
the following candidates would get your vote?

                      STATE  MEN  WOMEN
Hubert Humphrey III    38%   31%   45%
Mark Dayton            23%   27%   19%
Ted Mondale            10%   11%   9%
Mike Freeman           10%   9%    11%
Doug Johnson           4%    4%    4%
Undecided              15%   18%   12%

QUESTION (to 317 likely GOP Primary voters): If you were voting 
today for the Republican nominee for Governor in 1998, which of 
the following candidates would get your vote?

                      STATE  MEN  WOMEN
Norm Coleman           75%   74%   76%
Bill Dahn              11%   14%   8%
Undecided              14%   12%   16%

QUESTION : If the 1998 election for Governor were held today, 
whom would you vote for if the choice were between Hubert 
Humphrey III, the DFL Party candidate; Norm Coleman, the Republican;
and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?

Humphrey   43%
Coleman    29%
Ventura    13%
Undecided  15%

QUESTION : If the 1998 election for Governor were held today, 
whom would you vote for if the choice were between Mark 
Dayton, the DFL Party candidate; Norm Coleman, the Republican;
and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?

Dayton     35%
Coleman    34%
Ventura    12%
Undecided  19%

QUESTION : If the 1998 election for Governor were held today, 
whom would you vote for if the choice were between Ted 
Mondale, the DFL Party candidate; Norm Coleman, the Republican;
and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?

Mondale    36%
Coleman    32%
Ventura    11%
Undecided  21%

QUESTION : If the 1998 election for Governor were held today, 
whom would you vote for if the choice were between Mike Freeman
the DFL Party candidate; Norm Coleman, the Republican; and 
Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?

Coleman    36%
Freeman    32%
Ventura    12%
Undecided  20%

QUESTION : If the 1998 election for Governor were held today, 
whom would you vote for if the choice were between Doug Johnson
the DFL Party candidate; Norm Coleman, the Republican; and 
Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?

Coleman    40%
Johnson    25%
Ventura    8 %
Undecided  27%

STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION
I am going to read you the names of several individuals who are active in public life. After I mention each name, I would simply like you to tell me if you recognize that individual. If you do recognize a name, I will then ask you if you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of that person.

                      RECOGNIZE   RECOGNIZE    RECOGNIZE   DON'T
                      FAVORABLE   UNFAVORABLE  NEUTRAL     RECOGNIZE

Hubert Humphrey III     57%         16%         25%         2%
Norm Coleman            38%         19%         36%         7%
Ted Mondale             29%         13%         52%         6%
Mark Dayton             37%         21%         38%         4%
Jesse Ventura           24%         26%         39%         11%
Mike Freeman            28%         6%          48%         18%
Doug Johnson            14%         9%          35%         42%
Bill Dahn               2%          5%          12%         81%

ISSUE ANALYSIS

Education and Taxes remain the top two issues for voters who say they intend to vote in the DFL and GOP primary on September 15th. There is widespread disagree about what to do with budget surpluses.

ISSUE RESULTS

QUESTION: What will be the single most important issue to you 
when deciding how to vote in the Governor's race?

                              
Education                      25%
Taxes/Government Spending      24%
Health Care                    13%
Character of the candidate      8%
Crime/Drugs                     7%
Economic Development            6%
Social Welfare                  4%
Leadership record               3%
Environment                     1%
Candidate's Party               1% 
No answer                       8%

QUESTION: As you may know, Minnesota officials expect the state
to have a surplus of more than $1.2 billion for the next two
years beginning next July. Which of the following do you think
the state should do with the surplus?

• Spend it on various education, public safety and other
  programs?

• Put it in a rainy day fund?

• Return it to the taxpayers?

                      STATE  MEN  WOMEN
Spend it on programs   28%   26%   30%
Rainy Day Fund         17%   23%   11%
Return it              44%   43%   45%
Some of the above      10%    7%   13%
Not sure                1%    1%    1%

QUESTION : If the state determines that at least some of the
surplus should be used to cut taxes, which of the following
taxes would you favor reducing first?

• State income tax

• State sales tax

• Local property tax
  

                       STATE  MEN  WOMEN
Income Tax             38%   37%   39%
Sales Tax              13%   12%   14%
Property Tax           49%   51%   47%

QUESTION : If income taxes are cut,which 
of these two ways of doing it would you favor?

• An across the board lower of the rate for all taxpayers.

• Targeting the tax cut by giving tax credits for education,
  child care, or other expenses

                      STATE  MEN  WOMEN
Lower Rate             71%   72%   70%
Tax Credits            25%   23%   27%
Not Sure                4%    5%    3%

QUESTION : Several candidate have proposed giving Minnesota
students the equivalent of free college tuition for a year or 
more if they attend college in Minnesota. Do you think this is
a good use of state tax money or a bad use of state tax money?

                      STATE  MEN  WOMEN
Good Use               61%   64%   58%
Bad Use                24%   24%   24%
Not Sure               15%   12%   18%

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POLL METHODOLOGY
The Mason-Dixon Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. of Columbia, Maryland from August 28 through August 30, 1998. A total of 812 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they regularly vote in state elections.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95% probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender grouping.

This survey also includes an over-sampling of 317 "likely" 1998 DFL primary voters (plus-or-minus 5.6%) and 301 "likely" 1998 Republican primary voters (plus-or-minus 5.8%). These over-samplings were only on questions pertaining to the primary races.

SAMPLE FIGURES
Men: 402 (50%); Women: 410 (50%)

REGION
Minneapolis-St. Paul: 442 interviews
Rochester/Southeast: 95 interviews
Southwest Minnesota: 90 interviews
Northwest Minnesota: 90 interviews
Duluth/Northeast: 95 interviews

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Poll Copyright 1998, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved