MPR: Tax Surplus Poll

Tax Surplus Poll
April 14, 1999
Part of The First 100 Days Series.
Analysis | Poll Results | Poll Methodology | Story

ANALYSIS

Minnesota voters are evenly divided over what to do with the state's surplus. Statewide, 49% want to invest or spend the money on schools, highway, and other areas, while 47% want the entire amount returned to taxpayers.

State voters are similarly divided over what tax to permanently cut. Overall, 32% prefer to cut the property tax, 30% want to reduce the income tax, and 21% support a cut in the sales-tax rate.

There is a strong consensus, however, on what to do with Minnesota's $1.3 billion tobacco settlement. Statewide, 72% favor setting up endowments and using the money to prevent smoking, conduct medical research, and do other health-related activities. Only 23% favor a tax rebate.
Senators' Performance Republican Senator Rod Grams continues to receive a mixed job performance rating, and less than 40% of Minnesota voters currently say they are inclined to re-elect him next year.

Statewide, 44% rate Grams' performance as "excellent" or "good" (up from 42%), while 25% rate it as "only fair," and 19% rate it "poor" (up from 16%). A significant 12% are still unable to rate Grams after more than four years in office.

Grams Job Rating	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Undecided
September 1995	4%	37%	27%	16%	16%
January 1996	7%	32%	34%	15%	12%
May 1996	8%	34%	31%	17%	10%
September 1996	9%	32%	26%	25%	8%
February 1998	8%	34%	32%	16%	10%
April 1999	10%	34%	25%	19%	12%

Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone, re-elected in 1996, has a slightly higher job rating than Grams. Statewide, 52% rate Wellstone's performance as "excellent" or "good" (up from 48%), while 23% rate it as "only fair", and 22% continue to rate it "poor".

Wellstone Job Rating	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Undecided
February 1992	7%	34%	31%	21%	7%
September 1992	4%	38%	29%	21%	8%
May 1994	5%	31%	32%	29%	3%
September 1995	7%	36%	26%	27%	5%
January 1996	9%	39%	27%	23%	2%
May 1996	6%	35%	30%	27%	2%
September 1996	10%	37%	29%	23%	1%
September 1996	10%	37%	29%	23%	1%
February 1998	17%	31%	27%	22%	3%
April 1999	10%	42%	23%	22%	3%

RESULTS

QUESTION : Which of the following statements comes closest to your point of view? (order rotated)

Minnesota's tax surplus should be returned entirely to the taxpayers.
As long as the economy and state finances are doing well, a big portion of the tax surplus should be invested in improving schools, highways, crime-fighting efforts or other areas.

Option	State	Men	Women
Return	47%	53%	41%
Invest	49%	46%	52%
Not Sure	4%	1%	7%

QUESTION: Governor Ventura and legislative leaders are planning a permanent tax cut for Minnesotans. Which of the following is more important to you?

Cut the sales-tax rate
Cut the personal income-tax rate
Cut property taxes
Reduce fees, such as vehicle registration.

Option	State	Men	Women
Property	32%	31%	33%
Income	30%	32%	28%
Sales	21%	19%	23%
Reduce Fees	15%	16%	14%
Other/Don't Know	2%	2%	2%

QUESTION : State lawmakers are also debating what to do with $1.3 billion from the state's settlement with tobacco companies. Which of the following statements comes closest to your point of view?(order rotated)

The state should set up endowments and use the interest to help prevent smoking, do medical research, and conduct similar health-related efforts.
The state should give the money to taxpayers as part of a state rebate.

Option	State	Men	Women
Endowments	72%	72%	72%
Tax Rebate	23%	25%	21%
Not Sure	5%	3%	7%

QUESTION : How would you rate the performance of Paul Wellstone as Minnesota's U.S. Senator?

Option	State	Men	Women
Excellent	10%	11%	9%
Good	42%	36%	48%
Fair	23%	20%	26%
Poor	22%	31%	13%
Undecided	3%	2%	4%

QUESTION : How would you rate the performance of Rod Grams as Minnesota's U.S. Senator?

Option	State	Men	Women
Excellent	10%	13%	7%
Good	34%	38%	30%
Fair	25%	21%	29%
Poor	19%	18%	20%
Undecided	12%	10%	14%

QUESTION : If the 2000 election for Minnesota's U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote to re-elect Republican Rod Grams, would you consider voting for a Democratic challenger, or would you definitely vote to replace Grams with a Democrat?

Option	State	Men	Women
Re-Elect	38%	43%	33%
Consider a Democrat	36%	35%	37%
Replace	15%	13%	17%
Not Sure	11%	9%	13%

POLL METHODOLOGY
The Mason-Dixon Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. of Washington, DC from April 7, 1999 through April 9, 1999. A total of 628 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they regularly vote in state elections.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus-or-minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender grouping.
PLEASE NOTE: This report is the property of Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. It is not for duplication and/or redistribution. Copies of this report are available only through subscription. Subscribers are prohibited from providing this document to any third party. Any party in an unauthorized possession, engaging in unauthorized use. or involved in the unauthorized duplication or transmission of this document is subject to all applicable criminal and civil penalties.

Poll Copyright 1999, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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