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Morning Session
By Andrew Haeg
July 21, 1999
On July 21, 1999 the Minnesota Public Radio Civic Journalism Initiative brought together some 70 stakeholders from all around Minnesota to talk about where the state stood in terms of Y2K preparedness. In the morning, the central questions for the participants speaking from their own industrial and governmental disciplines were: 1) Are we ready? 2) What more has to be done and who will do it?
In the afternoon, they met in four small mixed groups to address what special concerns must be addressed for 1) metro and small city areas 2) rural areas ready 3) groups with special needs and 4) statewide coordination efforts. Here are the results of these discussions.
A PRIMARY MESSAGE from the Y2K summit is: No one is certain what will happen on December 31, 1999.
The two scenarios that seem most prevalent are these: At worst, beginning as early as August 21, when Global Positioning Systems roll over to the new millennium and leading to December 31 at 12:00 a.m., the state will blindly enter the new millennium and communities will be pitched into panic and darkness.
Scenario 2: At best, "The Bug" will cause some systems to fail, but will leave the superstructure largely unaffected. The start of the new millennium will become a time for the country and communities learn about the ligaments that connect them: communities will come together to plan for emergencies; community leaders will get to better know the businesses that fuel their communities; and businesses will learn how exactly they are connected to the rest of the world. Under this model, Y2K will be a sort of referendum on our society; bright lines will trace the ties that bind and will impart a strong sense of connectivity.
But the majority of summit participants were focused on a third, loosely defined scenario: as early as August 21, before the turn of the millennium, people will behave erratically as they see problems occur around the globe. State infrastructure will operate normally, barring minor interruptions (participants were largely sanguine about their own preparations). But phone companies will see a high, perhaps unmanageable, level of traffic on January 1 from people who want to make sure theirs and loved ones' phone lines work. Under that scenario, dubbed the "Mother of all Mother's Days," people may get a dial tone, but no outside connection. Those trying to report emergencies to 911 will have trouble getting through. They may misdiagnose the problem, think the millennial bug has paralyzed communications and panic. Seeing those and other minor, random problems, the media will pick up on the crisis and report it as such, sparking untold disruptions.
In order to stem uncertainty and to appease people who think the world's gone wrong, participants agreed that everyone from government to business to communities must cooperate when the calendar flips to the new millennium.
The key to a cooperative effort is communication. This was the primary concern of the majority of the symposium participants. Each felt good about their own organization's preparedness. Y2K compliance, in most cases is complete, businesses and corporations are busy hashing out contingency plans and retesting their systems. Their own houses in order, participants were concerned with setting society right and making sure everyone was prepared, not for the worst, but for inevitable glitches in an otherwise smooth-running state. To do that, they proposed that everyone work to establish strong lines of communication with those on whom they rely for services and information.
The Morning Session
Before participants repaired to classrooms to gauge the state's Y2K preparedness, State Senator Steve Kelley and Internet entrepreneur Mike O'Connor discussed, in broad terms, the challenges facing the state. Kelley, is co-chair of the Year 2000 Legislative Task Force, authored two Y2K bills during the 1999 Minnesota legislative session and is considered the Legislature's technology expert.
Kelley said he believes that despite all the preparations businesses and infrastructure have made, that "some major system is going to fail," when the calendar flips and thousands of people will be affected. "If we can limit that number to 100,000 people, that's a minor problem," he said. Laughing, O'Connor replied, "No way am I putting a number in it." O'Connor said he agreed with Kelley that some major system will fail. O'Connor advises St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman and co-founded two Internet sites: gofast.net and Television.com and has served on a number of civic organizations that are trying to prepare communities for the millennium.
Minnesota gets top grades in preparation, O'Connor said, but that shouldn't overly inflate people's confidence. "I want people to be confident but not cocky," O'Connor said. Minnesotans are "a little on the complacent side," he said.
But for O'Connor, crisis is just another word for opportunity. Under O'Connor's grand vision for the start of the millennium, citizens will reach out to help one another prepare for Y2K and strengthen the bonds between them in the process. The millennium, he said, "is an opportunity to weave the fabric of our community better."
With that, participants gathered for their morning sessions.
The Morning Breakout Groups
Participants from a cross-section of state industries, governmental and non-governmental organizations joined small groups to discuss challenges to the state, to outline their top concerns and report back to the group. They were asked to answer two questions:
- Is the state ready?
- What still needs to be done and who will do it?
Infrastructure Group
The infrastructure group agreed that everyone, from NSP to Northwest Airlines to US West, is ready for Y2K. They have all upgraded their systems, created contingency plans and are busy testing and retesting their systems.
They believe they now have to communicate better with the media, emergency preparedness groups and with each other within infrastructure industries. "People are going to be craving information," said Tom Chambers of Minnesota Power, who was the group facilitator.
Regarding event management, Chambers said, "If there's any problems, we need to be able to handle those events and get that information out to the right people." Part of that responsibility falls to major infrastructure players, the group agreed, but part falls too with the media. Many worried that myopia and crisis-laden reports would whip the public into a frenzy. To prevent that, Chambers said that "infrastructure has to work with the media to get the right, consistent message out." At the same time, he said, "Reporters need to be responsible."
Discussion in the group earlier focused on the problems that US West may have in dealing with a higher volume of phone and internet usage, as people's curiosity spurs them to connect to the rest of the world. In reply, US West's Laurie Desfenbaugh had six words of advice: "Use phones and the Internet sparingly."
Government
"By and large, cities, the counties and the state are ready, provided that the information we are getting is accurate," said group representative Kent Sulem. Sulem is Y2K coordinator for League of Minnesota Cities.
He reported that his group thought the biggest challenges for governmental organizations at the turn of the millennium will be planning for emergencies and contingencies. In order to do that efficiently, Sulem said there is still a lot of work to be done:
- The state should provide a central leadership role.
- Cities should appoint emergency managers like those at the county level.
- Individuals should speak up if they see gaps in their community's readiness.
Government should have outreach to vulnerable citizens. For example, the Hmong community is very concerned about Y2K and craves more information. Other communities don't speak English and/or don't read, but still should receive Y2K background and preparedness information. And special thought must be given to the house ridden and other vulnerable adults. Radio might be a good way of reaching many of these groups.
Like their symposium partners, the government group reported that strong communication is the most important link in the chain between state, county and city groups. Sulem said they need to help get "accurate information out," and make sure the information spurs action but not overreaction or panic.
Emergency Management
Representatives from the Army, the National Guard and state and city organizations came together to gauge the state's readiness. Sally Dobson of the American Red Cross, who was the group facilitator, affirmed that, of anyone, she said her group is uniquely suited to the challenges of Y2K. Most group members are deeply experienced emergency planners, she said, and have had many opportunities to test the support system they will use to manage the turn of the millennium. "We're very ready," she said.
Their biggest concern, like everyone else, was the timely delivery of accurate and efficient communication. Dobson said some of the groundwork for proper communication has been laid at the city and county level and with the governor's Superboard. The upcoming National Night Out, designed to draw attention to Y2K, and materials the Red Cross and others have produced, Dobson said, will help get the word out.
On the day of the new millennium, Paul Pryzbilla, an emergency manager and a Maple Grove city official, said that they will solicit the help of amateur radio operators, who can operate without phone lines or electricity.
To undergird her group's already extensive efforts, Dobson said that individuals should "use their own personal planning in case there are any problems in segments of the communities" that aren't prepared.
As for fire and police, Dobson said her group agreed that there will be "a bit more" preparedness for Y2K.
From her own end, Dobson said the Red Cross is working on providing temporary shelters with showers and backup generators to the communities that may need them in the case of Y2K problems.
Health Systems Group
A broad cross-section of participants comprised the Health Care Systems Group, from hospital representatives, Red Cross workers, to employees of Medtronic. They reached a consensus: "Minnesota is OK. Nationally, not OK."
"We felt that as a state, that the system has been working on this issue for a good long time and we are confident that we are well on our way to being ready," said Melanie Soucheray, who represented the group. Soucheray works for the Minnesota Hospital and Health Care Partnership.
However, Soucheray said that nationally, surveys have shown less preparation on the part of the health care system. That may not directly affect Minnesotans, but Soucheray said her group was worried that it may affect Minnesotan's perception about the state's well being as the rest of the country reports problems.
Though confident with the state's readiness, they had concerns about:
- Senior housing.
- Senior services.
- Nursing homes.
- Individual providers that are in private practice, who, Soucheray said,
"may or may not have been concerned enough about this issue in enough time
to actually do something about it. So there's going to be some catch-up that
will be needed."
If individual providers fail, Soucheray said her group was concerned that public perception would quickly sour. But as a group, statewide, Soucheray said, "Not to fear."
However, there was one area of concern:
- The pharmaceutical supply chain.
Group members said that some of those who rely on prescriptions for health
have reportedly become worried about the ability of their provider to
deliver come Y2K. Soucheray was quick to affirm that all will be well:
"There has been work done nationally and at the state level and the local
level," Soucheray said, "The pharmaceutical industry tells us that there is
90 days of supply under any circumstances in the system." Prior to the
new millennium, Soucheray reported that, "The system will sustain anyone
renewing their prescription within five to seven days of that prescription
running out."
Still, Soucheray encouraged patients to take matters into their own hands and "keep an eye on their calendar...keep an eye on their prescription model and within five to seven days of that prescription running out, get it renewed." On the other end of that equation, Soucheray said her group agreed that pharmacies should leave a paper trail of all their transactions that will allow for accurate record keeping.
The biggest piece both in connection with the community and with the outside world, she said, is strong communication. As part of that, Soucheray said that her group should use the next five months to establish "greater contingency planning and connection with the community," she said.
On the eve of the millennium, those connections will become more vital, as people respond to the problems they see. "There are certain patterns of human behavior when there are problems in a community," she said. "All the plans (for the eve of the new millennium if things go wrong) say that people will go to schools." In her group, the health care people said adamantly, "No, they come to us," she said. "We need to make sure that our plans reflect human behavior and that we're ready for whatever happens," she said.
Soucheray said that media will play a big part in placating the community if problems arise. "We have to start telling our story," she said, "and in a credible way." The threat of liability has made telling that story difficult in the past, for Soucheray's group and for organizations across the board.
"The industry is well along in the process of being ready and our next challenge is to reach out to the community," Soucheray said.
Business and Finance Group
Under this rubric gathered, again, a wide variety of participants from industries and banks to regulatory agencies with one notable exception: There was no small-business representative, which concerned some, as small businesses will most likely be the most deeply affected group of businesses.
"The clear consensus in the group is that we are ready," said Jim Lyon Officer in Charge of Information Technology for the Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota.
"There was the sense of confidence out of the group, but not one of complacency or completion," said Lyon.
For banks and big business, Lyon reported that remediation and testing is largely finished. At present, businesses are focused on connecting with suppliers, partners and customers to make sure that connections remain intact once the calendar flips.
But there's work to be done:
- Contingency plans are still being developed.
As part of that, Lyon said, most members of the group are establishing
special communications facilities that will operate during the millennium
rollover.
Those, he said, once were called "Crisis Centers," but have now been more mildly dubbed, "Communications Centers." That for a simple reason: "We don't think there'll be any crisis management," Lyon said of the group. - Forecasting demand and consumption.
From the standpoint of both business and infrastructure, Lyon said his group is focused on trying to gauge the level of consumption of their services, whether they be goods, services, finance or utilities.
"That represents a real challenge, because this is obviously a somewhat unique event," Lyon said. "And there are, inherent in the system, limitations in the capacity to significantly deviate from sort of business as usual, in terms of meeting those consumption plans," he said. In other words, businesses and utilities are finely tuned to deliver a certain amount of service at an agreed price. They can't overproduce, or underproduce, without disrupting their business. "Part of the challenge is in forecasting that situation as accurately as possible and working with customers and consumer on the one hand and business suppliers on the other, to try to manage expectations in a way that people are taking reasonable and prudent steps to prepare themselves, without taking steps that create undue stress or demand on an infrastructure that would otherwise be capable of handling the situation," he said.
Lyon replied: "We have the capacity here in this country and it's true in many other countries as well, to put extra cash into the system, but you have to realize that the banks are charged for that cash when it's put into the system, so simply injecting more cash into the economy is not an inflationary action in and of itself."
Broadcasting and Media Group
Alan Cox, a reporter for WCCO-TV, represented this group, comprised of reporters, community officials and media employees. Here, underneath a general level of confidence in their organizations' readiness, there bubbled a broad range of concerns, from a lack of proper Y2K coverage, to the nettlesome issue of the liabilities of self-reporting of Y2K preparedness by agencies or corporations.
Cox discussed their concerns: "One of the unusual things that I heard this morning," Cox said, "in may cases, that the media has underplayed" the Y2K story. Cox said his group thought the coverage, until now, has been largely polarized. On one end, stories of crisis and doom starting in 1998, counterbalanced by stories this year that have largely downplayed the possibility of mass crisis and marginalized the doomsayers.
"Leaders--political, corporate and otherwise--sensed that marginalization," he said, "and therefore, they don't won't to lead, or for us reporters, they don't want to be quoted." That in turn, the group agreed, has hurt the media's ability to, Cox reported: 1) "reach into local communities to organize them."; 2) "reach into certain audiences, like small business owners in greater Minnesota who depend on general news organizations for their information."; and 3) All this, Cox said may have marginalized those who are concerned, causing them to "become more shrill in their pronouncements and thus become more marginalized," he said.
Cox said some believe the media has "compartmentalized" the Y2K and have treated it purely as a computer story, when in fact, as each of the previous groups agreed, Y2K issues cut across every sector of society, from the highest office to the humblest shack.
One notable example of good, balanced coverage, Cox said, was a report by one local TV station about a community whose residents may not receive their paychecks if small businesses aren't up to speed by the turn of the millennium.
Reporters complained of a "lack of candor in some instances," Cox said. Several of participants said that some organizations were fearful of being too upfront about Y2K problems, for fear of liabilities in the event that problems do arise. "Reporters looking for examples to explain to readers and viewers why this is an important issue, but are unable to get those examples because no one will admit to the problem," Cox said, because, possibly, "Their lawyers forbid it."
Cox said that those in his group advised others to "take with a grain of salt or more skepticism the pronouncements by various agencies or corporations" that they are so many percent done with their Y2K preparations. Media have been hard pressed to ferret information even from the SEC on how much businesses are planning to spend on Y2K preparedness, an erstwhile bellwether of their relative preparedness, Cox said.
Cox cited one business executive on this point: "Tell the truth and tell it fast." That, Cox said, will help in getting the story out.
Inside the media, there was confidence mixed with, of course, uncertainty. Cox cited one newspaper representative as saying that newspapers are crawling with improvisers and that the media are used to covering unusual events and thus will be ready themselves when the time comes.
But, Cox said, some are concerned that their access to the Internet will be hampered by clogged phone lines. "The Internet may be the first to show problems on January 1st," Cox said.
Consumer, Community and Citizen Advocates
"The consumer group is concerned," said one group member prior to the report of the group's findings by William Clarke of the Blandin Foundation. This group agreed that three things must happen before the Millennium:
- People should check in on their neighbors to see that they're prepared.
- City governments must help their residents prepare.
- The state should put pressure on local communities to strengthen their preparedness programs.
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