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July 15 1999
Analysis | Poll Results | Poll Methodology | Story
ANALYSIS
Texas Governor George W. Bush, the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, has a five-point lead in Minnesota over Vice President Al Gore, the leading Democratic candidate. Bush maintains that five-point lead over Gore even if Governor JEsse Ventura is included as the Reform Party candidate, and a significant majority of state voters are opposed to a Ventura presidential bid.
Statewide, 44% of voters currently support bush, while 39% back Gore, and 17% remain undecided. Given Minnesota's propensity of voting for Democrats in recent presidential elections, the fact that Bush is ahead in the state underscores Gore's current problems nationally.
If Ventura is offered as the Reform Party candidate, Bush maintains a 39%-34% lead over gore, with Ventura drawing 12% and 15% undecided. This is not a particularly strong showing for the governor in his home state, but nor surprising given that 84% of Minnesota voters don't think Ventura should seek the presidency in 2000.
State voters still like Ventura, but seem to prefer that he concentrate on being governor for now. Although his personal popularity has dropped some since the celebratory post-election period, his favorable rating is high now as when he was elected.
Ventura name identification
| Poll Date | Favorable | Unfavorable | Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| June '98 | 21% | 19% | 40% | 20% |
| August '98 | 24% | 26% | 39% | 11% |
| October '98 | 33% | 28% | 30% | 9% |
| November '98 | 41% | 21% | 31% | 7% |
| December '98 | 61% | 6% | 32% | 1% |
| July '99 | 45% | 24% | 21% | - |
QUESTION: I am going to list the names of a number of individuals. After I mention each name, I would simply like for you to tell me if you recognize the name of that individual. If you do recognize a name, I will then ask you if you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that person.
| Name | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| George W. Bush |
46% |
16% |
38% |
- |
Jesse Ventura |
45% |
24% |
21% |
- |
Elizabeth Dole |
40% |
25% |
34% |
1% |
Al Gore |
37% |
39% |
24% |
- |
Bill Bradley |
19% |
14% |
51% |
16% | |
QUESTION: If the 2000 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Al Gore, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?
| Option | State | Men | Women |
| Bush | 44% | 52% | 36% |
| Gore | 39% | 34% | 44% |
| Undecided | 17% | 14% | 20% |
QUESTION: If the 2000 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Al Gore, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?
| Option | State | Men | Women |
| Gore | 40% | 38% | 42% |
| Dole | 39% | 40% | 38% |
| Undecided | 21% | 22% | 20% |
QUESTION: If the 2000 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bill Bradley, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?
| Option | State | Men | Women |
| Bush | 46% | 54% | 38% |
| Bradley | 27% | 25% | 29% |
| Undecided | 27% | 21% | 33% |
QUESTION: If the 2000 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Al Gore, the Democrat, George W. Bush, the Republican, and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate?
| Option | State | Men | Women |
| Bush | 39% | 45% | 33% |
| Gore | 34% | 30% | 38% |
| Ventura | 12% | 14% | 10% |
| Undecided | 15% | 11% | 19% |
QUESTION: Should Jesse Ventura run for president in 2000?
| Option | State | Men | Women |
| Yes | 11% | 13% | 9% |
| No | 84% | 85% | 83% |
| Not sure | 5% | 2% | 8% |
POLL METHODOLOGY
The St. Paul poll was conducted July 9 - 12, 1999 by Mason-Dixon Polling &
Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. A total of 624 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed by telephone. All stated they regularly vote in state elections.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges were utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points.
This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or gender grouping.
Sample Figures:
Men 311 (50%)
Women 313 (50%)
| Region | Interviews |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul | 346 interviews |
| Rochester/Southeast | 71 interviews |
| Southwest Minnesota | 65 interviews |
| Northwest Minnesota | 68 interviews |
| Duluth/Northeast | 74 interviews |
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Poll Copyright 1999, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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