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July 16 1999
Analysis | Poll Results | Poll Methodology | Story
ANALYSIS
Republican Senator Rod Grams will face a tough re-election campaign next year, as he fails to top 50% against every lesser-known potential Democratic challenger. Grams has failed to utilize his position in the Senate to improve his standing with Minnesota voters, and after five years in office has the same mixed popularity rating that he had just prior to his 1994 election.
Statewide, 38% have a favorable opinion of Grams, while 33% have an unfavorable view. In the wake of the strong pro-Republican national tide in 1994, Grams managed a narrow five-point win in Democratic-leaning Minnesota and received only 49% of the vote. His favorable/unfavorable ratio at that time was a very similar 35%/29%.
| Grams Name Recognition | Favorable | Unfavorable | Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| February '94 | 26% | 12% | 27% | 35% |
| May '94 | 34% | 9% | 28% | 29% |
| June '94 | 37% | 14% | 30% | 19% |
| August '94 | 33% | 20% | 30% | 17% |
| September '94 | 33% | 20% | 32% | 15% |
| November '94 | 35% | 29% | 31% | 5% |
| July '99 | 38% | 33% | 26% | 3% |
In head-to-head match-ups against Democrats, Grams captures only 41-46% of the vote, despite a statewide name recognition advantage that ranges from 15% to 64% over each of his opponents.
Former Congressman Tim Penny runs a dead-heat with Grams, trailing the incumbent Senator by only a 41%-40% margin. Penny has never run statewide, but has higher favorable name recognition than Grams (41%-38%). Grams' one-point lead is even less impressive in light of the fact that he currently enjoys a 15-point name-recognition advantage over Penny (97%-82%).
Against other Democrats, the spread widens by varying margins, but Grams remains stuck in the low-to-mid 40s. He leads Roger Moe (42%-34%), David Minge (43%-35%), David Lillehaug (44%-30%), Mike Ciresi (45%-26%), and Steve Miles (46%-27%) by margins that are relatively proportional to his statewide name-recognition advantage.
These results should cause Penny, and perhaps other major Democrats, to seriously look at entering this race. But even if the Democratic nominee eventually comes from the current "second-tier" of contenders, one of them still has a shot at capturing the Senate seat. A major factor working to the Democrats advantage is that "undecided" women outnumber "undecided" men by about a two-to-one margin in each match-up. This race could parallel Paul Wellstone's 1990 victory over then-incumbent GOP Senator Rudy Boschwitz.
Statewide name identification
| Name | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| Tim Penny | 41% | 6% | 35% | 18% |
| Rod Grams | 38% | 33% | 26% | 3% |
| Roger Moe | 31% | 18% | 30% | 21% |
| David Minge | 18% | 9% | 35% | 38% |
| Judi Dutcher | 15% | 7% | 36% | 42% |
| David Lillehaug | 10% | 8% | 39% | 43% |
| Mike Ciresi | 6% | 3% | 24% | 67% |
| Steve Miles | 5% | 4% | 25% | 66% |
| James Gibson | 4% | 1% | 21% | 74% |
QUESTION: If the 2000 election for Minnesota's U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Rod Grams, the Republican, Tim Penny, the Democrat, and James Gibson, the Reform Party candidate.
| Name | State | Men | Women |
| Grams | 41% | 46% | 36% |
| Penny | 40% | 42% | 38% |
| Gibson | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| Undecided | 16% | 8% | 24% |
QUESTION: If the 2000 election were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Rod Grams, the Republican, Roger Moe, the Democrat, and James Gibson, the Reform Party candidate?
| Option | State | Men | Women |
| Grams | 42% | 49% | 37% |
| Moe | 34% | 32% | 36% |
| Gibson | 5% | 8% | 2% |
| Undecided | 18% | 11% | 25% |
QUESTION: If the 2000 election were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Rod Grams, the Republican, David Minge, the Democrat, and James Gibson, the Reform Party candidate?
| Option | State | Men | Women |
| Grams | 43% | 47% | 39% |
| Minge | 35% | 34% | 36% |
| Gibson | 5% | 8% | 2% |
| Undecided | 17% | 11% | 23% |
QUESTION: If the 2000 election were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Rod Grams, the Republican, David Lillehaug, the Democrat, and James Gibson, the Reform Party candidate?
| Option | State | Men | Women |
| Grams | 44% | 49% | 39% |
| Lillehaug | 30% | 28% | 32% |
| Gibson | 4% | 7% | 1% |
| Undecided | 22% | 16% | 28% |
QUESTION: If the 2000 election were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Rod Grams, the Republican, Mike Ciresi, the Democrat, and James Gibson, the Reform Party candidate?
| Option | State | Men | Women |
| Grams | 45% | 51% | 39% |
| Ciresi | 26% | 23% | 29% |
| Gibson | 5% | 8% | 2% |
| Undecided | 24% | 18% | 30% |
QUESTION: If the 2000 election were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Rod Grams, the Republican, Steve Miles, the Democrat, and James Gibson, the Reform Party candidate?
| Option | State | Men | Women |
| Grams | 46% | 51% | 41% |
| Miles | 27% | 25% | 29% |
| Gibson | 4% | 7% | 1% |
| Undecided | 23% | 17% | 29% |
POLL METHODOLOGY
The St. Paul poll was conducted July 9 - 12, 1999 by Mason-Dixon Polling &
Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. A total of 624 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed by telephone. All stated they regularly vote in state elections.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges were utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points.
This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or gender grouping.
Sample Figures:
Men 311 (50%)
Women 313 (50%)
| Region | Interviews |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul | 346 interviews |
| Rochester/Southeast | 71 interviews |
| Southwest Minnesota | 65 interviews |
| Northwest Minnesota | 68 interviews |
| Duluth/Northeast | 74 interviews |
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Poll Copyright 1999, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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