MPR: The Sleeper Race

The Sleeper Race
by William Wilcoxen
April 28, 2000

For campaign information, turn to MPR's Campaign 2000 section.

Republicans in Minnesota's Fourth Congressional District meet Saturday to endorse a candidate for the seat being vacated by Representative Bruce Vento. DFLers will do the same next weekend. A rare form of cancer is forcing Vento to relinquish his seat in Congress after representing Saint Paul and its closest suburbs since 1976. Vento's successor will serve a district that's changed substantially in 24 years.

RAMSEY COUNTY VOTERS first sent Bruce Vento to Washington in the same year that Saint Paul elected George Latimer mayor. From the late '70s throughout the 1980s, the two liberal Democrats solidified Saint Paul's reputation as a stronghold of the political left. But these days it's Norm Coleman, a convert to the Republican Party, who occupies City Hall. Coleman says his mayoral victories over two liberal Democrats suggest times have changed in the east metro.

"Whether the voting public in Saint Paul is fundamentally more conservative, I can't say," says Coleman. "But I think there's at least been a shift; and certainly throughout the district, in the suburbs, there's been a shift, which then makes it possible for Republicans to win that seat."

The fourth district has been impenetrable to Republicans for half a century. Democrats have held the seat since 1948 and the current DFL state chair, Mike Erlandson, insists the fourth remains a Democratic stronghold even though the Vento-Latimer heyday has passed.

"It's a shift that's taken place gradually all around our country," says Erlandson. "But it's still a district that's a very working-family district. It's a district that has lots of union households in it."

Vento leaves a district that looks different than that first elected him. Economically, there is both more poverty and more wealth, while the middle class has shrunk. Demographically, there are more senior citizens and more immigrants, particularly from Southeast Asia.

Perhaps the most politically significant change is suburbanization.

"You just have to drive through Shoreview, North Oaks, Vadnais Heights, Mendota Heights and see all the newer homes in there since 1976, and you can see how those areas are represented by Republicans in most cases, or are areas that go back and forth between Republicans and the DFL party."

- Tony Sutton
executive director, MN. Republican Party

The district's boundaries now include not only all of Ramsey County, but also some of the suburbs in northern Dakota County. Suburbs are also where the district's population growth has occurred. In 1976, more than 60 percent of the district's voters lived in Saint Paul. Today, a slim majority live in suburbs.

Tony Sutton, executive director of the state Republican Party, says the suburbs tend to be more fertile ground for Republicans. "Most people, when they think of the fourth district, think it's the city of Saint Paul," says Sutton. "And it's not anymore. That's because of all the development. You just have to drive through Shoreview, North Oaks, Vadnais Heights, Mendota Heights and see all the newer homes in there since 1976, and you can see how those areas are represented by Republicans in most cases, or are areas that go back and forth between Republicans and the DFL party."

Congressman Vento cautions against equating suburbanization with Republican votes. He cites West Saint Paul and South Saint Paul as examples of suburbs where labor is strong and Democrats populate city councils and school boards. Vento also disputes the notion that Saint Paul has recently become more conservative. He says some city voters may just be more disinterested. "Parts of the city have become less politically active," Vento admits. "The East Side is less politically active now than it once was. Nevertheless, I think if you can get them activated, if you can get them motivated, you have a pretty good chance of winning their votes."

Former Mayor Latimer says east-metro voters judge each campaign and candidate on its own merits, rather than through the lens of a party. Latimer says that helps explain how Coleman could be elected mayor resoundingly, but then earn only 27 percent of Saint Paul votes cast in the following year's gubernatorial election. While Latimer thinks the fourth district is likely to remain Democratic, he says the open seat gives Republicans an opportunity, particularly if the DFL takes the seat for granted. "There's a real risk that the Democrats still think it's automatic that there'll be a Democrat," according to Latimer. "Voters won't go along with that. And if either party makes the mistake of thinking they can foist someone who has a strong ideological bent and doesn't really reflect or represent the broad middle of the population of the county, they're going to lose."

State DFL chair Erlandson says the party will not take the fourth district for granted. Republican state director Sutton says his party is in a good position in the fourth, which he says could be the sleeper race of the 2000 campaign. Five Republicans and seven Democrats are campaigning for the seat.

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