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September 28, 2000
Analysis | Poll Results | Poll Methodology | Story | Previous Senate Poll
Analysis
Republican incumbent Rod Grams trails Democratic challenger Mark Dayton in the Minnesota Senate race. Statewide, 46 percent of likely voters currently support Dayton, while 41 percent back Grams, 4 percent are for Reform Party candidate James Gibson, and 9 percent remain undecided. Dayton held a 44 - 41 percent lead in August.
| Poll Date | Grams | Dayton | Gibson | Undecided |
| September 2000 | 41% | 46% | 4% | 9% |
| August 2000 | 41% | 44% | 4% | 11% |
| July 2000 | 46% | 29% | 5% | 20% |
A gender gap is present in the Senate race, with women backing Dayton by a 53 percent to 35 percent margin and men supporting Grams 47 percent to 39 percent.
Dayton leads in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area (48-40 percent), Duluth/Northeast (53-32 percent), and Rochester/Southeast (44-39 percent). Grams is ahead only in Southwest Minnesota (48-38 percent) and Northwest Minnesota (51-38 percent).
Dayton enjoys a higher favorable rating than Grams (40-37 percent), while the incumbent Republican has higher unfavorable name recognition (36-23 percent).
Name Recognition
| Rod Grams | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| February '94 | 26% | 12% | 27% | 35% |
| May '94 | 34% | 9% | 28% | 29% |
| June '94 | 37% | 14% | 30% | 19% |
| August '94 | 33% | 20% | 30% | 17% |
| September '94 | 33% | 20% | 32% | 15% |
| November '94 | 35% | 29% | 31% | 5% |
| July '99 | 38% | 33% | 26% | 3% |
| July 2000 | 39% | 28% | 26% | 7% |
| August 2000 | 35% | 31% | 28% | 6% |
| September 2000 | 37% | 36% | 25% | 2% |
Name Recognition
| Mark Dayton | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| July 2000 | 21% | 23% | 39% | 17% |
| August 2000 | 36% | 21% | 31% | 12% |
| September 2000 | 40% | 23% | 34% | 3% |
Statewide Name Recognition
| Candidate | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| Mark Dayton | 40% | 23% | 34% | 3% |
| Rod Grams | 37% | 36% | 25% | 2% |
Results:
QUESTION: If the 2000 election for Minnesota's U.S.
Senate seat were held today, would you vote for Mark Dayton, the Democrat;
Rod Grams, the Republican; James Gibson, the Independence Party candidate; or
David Swan, the Constitution Party candidate?
| Region | Dayton | Grams | Gibson | Undecided |
| Statewide | 46% | 41% | 4% | 9% |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul | 48% | 40% | 4% | 8% |
| Rochester/Southeast | 44% | 39% | 4% | 13% |
| Southwest Minnesota | 38% | 48% | 2% | 12% |
| Northwest Minnesota | 38% | 51% | 3% | 7% |
| Duluth/Northeast | 53% | 32% | 4% | 11% |
| Gender | Dayton | Grams | Gibson | Undecided |
| Men | 39% | 47% | 5% | 9% |
| Women | 53% | 35% | 3% | 9% |
QUESTION: Which U.S. Senate candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling education issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Dayton | 45% |
| Grams | 33% |
| Other | 6% |
| Not sure | 16% |
QUESTION: Which U.S. Senate candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling Social Security reform
issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Dayton | 45% |
| Grams | 32% |
| Other | 4% |
| Not sure | 19% |
QUESTION: Which U.S. Senate candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling environmental issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Dayton | 39% |
| Grams | 28% |
| Other | 5% |
| Not sure | 28% |
QUESTION: Which U.S. Senate candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling tax and government spending policy
issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Grams | 38% |
| Dayton | 36% |
| Other | 5% |
| Not sure | 21% |
QUESTION: Which U.S. Senate candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling Medicare and prescription drug
policy issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Dayton | 49% |
| Grams | 27% |
| Other | 3% |
| Not sure | 21% |
QUESTION: Which U.S. Senate candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling health care policy issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Dayton | 47% |
| Grams | 28% |
| Other | 3% |
| Not sure | 22% |
POLL METHODOLOGY
The Mason-Dixon Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from September 22 through September 25, 2000. A total of 627 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they regularly vote in state elections.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges were utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or gender grouping.
Sample Figures:
Men 312 (50%)
Women 315 (50%)
| Region | Interviews |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul | 351 interviews |
| Rochester/Southeast | 71 interviews |
| Southwest Minnesota | 65 interviews |
| Northwest Minnesota | 68 interviews |
| Duluth/Northeast | 72 interviews |
PLEASE NOTE: This report is the property of Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. It is not for duplication and/or redistribution. Copies of this report are available only through subscription. Subscribers are prohibited from providing this document to any third party. Any party in an unauthorized possession, engaging in unauthorized use. or involved in the unauthorized duplication or transmission of this document is subject to all applicable criminal and civil penalties.
Poll Copyright 2000, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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