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September 29, 2000
Analysis | Poll Results | Poll Methodology | Story | Previous Presidential Poll
Analysis
Since moving ahead following his party convention in August, Democrat Al Gore has maintained his lead over Republican George W. Bush in Minnesota.
Statewide, Gore holds a 47 - 40 percent lead over Bush, with Green Party candidate Ralph Nader drawing four percent, Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan getting just one percent and eight percent of those surveyed are still undecided. Gore held a 48-40 percent lead over Bush in late August.
| Poll Date | Gore | Bush | Buchanan | Nader | Undecided |
| September 2000 | 47% | 40% | 1% | 4% | 8% |
| August 2000 | 48% | 40% | 1% | 3% | 8% |
| July 2000 | 40% | 43% | 3% | 5% | 9% |
| February 2000 | 43% | 40% | 4% | n/a | 13% |
| July 1999 | 39% | 44% | n/a | n/a | 17% |
There is a clear gender gap in Minnesota, with Gore holding a wide 53-34 percent lead among women and Bush ahead 46-41 percent with men.
Gore leads by 11 points in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area (49-38 percent), a narrower 48-39 percent advantage in the Southeast and a wider 51-35 percent margin in the Northeast. Bush is ahead 45-40 percent in Southwest Minnesota and 50-38 percent in Northwest.
Gore's personal popularity remains slightly higher than Bush's.
Name Recognition
| Al Gore | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| July '99 | 37% | 39% | 24% | -- |
| July '00 | 34% | 34% | 32% | -- |
| August '00 | 46% | 27% | 27% | -- |
| September '00 | 43% | 29% | 28% | -- |
Name Recognition
| George W. Bush | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| July 1999 | 46% | 16% | 38% | -- |
| July 2000 | 39% | 26% | 34% | 1% |
| August 2000 | 37% | 32% | 30% | 1% |
| September 2000 | 37% | 30% | 33% | -- |
Statewide Name Recognition
| Candidate | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| Al Gore | 43% | 29% | 28% | -- |
| George W. Bush | 37% | 30% | 33% | -- |
Results:
QUESTION: If the 2000 presidential election were held today, would you vote for:
- The Democratic ticket of Al Gore and Joe Lieberman?
- The Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney?
- The Reform Party ticket of Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster?
- The Green Party ticket of Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke?
| Region | Gore | Bush | Buchanan | Nader | Undecided |
| Statewide | 47% | 40% | 1% | 4% | 8% |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul | 49% | 38% | 1% | 5% | 7% |
| Rochester/Southeast | 48% | 39% | 1% | 4% | 7% |
| Southwest Minnesota | 40% | 45% | 2% | 3% | 11% |
| Northwest Minnesota | 38% | 50% | -- | 1% | 10% |
| Duluth/Northeast | 51% | 35% | 1% | 3% | 10% |
| Gender | Gore | Bush | Buchanan | Nader | Undecided |
| Men | 41% | 46% | 1% | 4% | 8% |
| Women | 53% | 34% | 1% | 4% | 8% |
QUESTION: Which single issue will be most important to you when deciding how to vote in the presidential and Senate races?
| Issue | Response |
| Character/qualities/experience | 22% |
| Education | 16% |
| Taxes/Government spending | 15% |
| Medicare/Prescription drugs | 13% |
| Health care | 8% |
| Social/moral issues | 7% |
| Social Security reform | 5% |
| Environment | 3% |
| National defense/foreign affairs | 2% |
| Energy policy/gas prices | 1% |
| Other/Don't know | 8% |
QUESTION: Which presidential candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling education issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Gore | 47% |
| Bush | 32% |
| Other | 3% |
| Same/Not sure | 18% |
QUESTION: Which presidential candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling national defense issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Bush | 43% |
| Gore | 39% |
| Other | 3% |
| Same/Not sure | 15% |
QUESTION: Which presidential candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling environmental issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Gore | 56% |
| Bush | 22% |
| Other | 5% |
| Same/Not sure | 17% |
QUESTION: Which presidential candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling foreign policy issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Gore | 48% |
| Bush | 36% |
| Other | 2% |
| Same/Not sure | 14% |
QUESTION: Which presidential candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling Social Security reform issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Gore | 44% |
| Bush | 37% |
| Other | 4% |
| Same/Not sure | 15% |
QUESTION: Which presidential candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling oil and energy policy issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Bush | 40% |
| Gore | 36% |
| Other | 3% |
| Same/Not sure | 21% |
QUESTION: Which presidential candidate
do you feel would do a better job of handling Medicare and prescription-drug policy issues?
| Candidate | Response |
| Gore | 44% |
| Bush | 34% |
| Other | 4% |
| Same/Not sure | 18% |
POLL METHODOLOGY
The Mason-Dixon Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from September 22 through September 25, 2000. A total of 627 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they regularly vote in state elections.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges were utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or gender grouping.
Sample Figures:
Men 312 (50%)
Women 315 (50%)
| Region | Interviews |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul | 351 interviews |
| Rochester/Southeast | 71 interviews |
| Southwest Minnesota | 65 interviews |
| Northwest Minnesota | 68 interviews |
| Duluth/Northeast | 72 interviews |
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Poll Copyright 2000, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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