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October 31, 2000
Analysis | Poll Results | Poll Methodology | Story | Previous Senate Poll
Analysis
Republican
incumbent Rod Grams continues to trail Democratic challenger Mark Dayton
in the Minnesota Senate race.
Statewide, 47 percent of likely voters currently support Dayton,
while 42 percent back Grams, five percent are for Reform Party candidate
James Gibson, and six percent remain undecided.Dayton held a similar 46-41
percent lead in September.
The
gender gap remains the race, with women backing Dayton by a 54 percent to
37 percent margin and men supporting Grams 46 percent to 39 percent.
| Poll Date | Grams | Dayton | Gibson | Undecided |
| October 2000 | 42% | 47% | 5% | 6% |
| September 2000 | 41% | 46% | 4% | 9% |
| August 2000 | 41% | 44% | 4% | 11% |
| July 2000 | 46% | 29% | 5% | 20% |
The race breaks predictably along
ideological lines, with Dayton winning 84-8 percent among self-described
liberals and Grams ahead 77-14 percent among conservatives. Dayton leads 52-35 percent among
the large segment of the electorate that considers themselves
moderates.
The
incumbent Republican continues to have higher unfavorable name recognition
(37-32 percent).
It is worth
noting, however, that Dayton's negative rating has increased nine points
over the past month.
Name Recognition
| Rod Grams | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| February '94 | 26% | 12% | 27% | 35% |
| May '94 | 34% | 9% | 28% | 29% |
| June '94 | 37% | 14% | 30% | 19% |
| August '94 | 33% | 20% | 30% | 17% |
| September '94 | 33% | 20% | 32% | 15% |
| November '94 | 35% | 29% | 31% | 5% |
| July '99 | 38% | 33% | 26% | 3% |
| July 2000 | 39% | 28% | 26% | 7% |
| August 2000 | 35% | 31% | 28% | 6% |
| September 2000 | 37% | 36% | 25% | 2% |
| October 2000 | 39% | 37% | 22% | 2% |
Name Recognition
| Mark Dayton | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| July 2000 | 21% | 23% | 39% | 17% |
| August 2000 | 36% | 21% | 31% | 12% |
| September 2000 | 40% | 23% | 34% | 3% |
| October 2000 | 42% | 32% | 24% | 2% |
Although Dayton's lead is just five points, "undecided" voters usually break more strongly in favor of challengers than incumbents. That is not a certainty, but it would not be too surprising if Dayton wins by a wider margin. Grams' base support has consistently registered in the low 40s, and it may not move much higher on election day.
Statewide Name Recognition
| Candidate | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| Mark Dayton | 42% | 32% | 24% | 2% |
| Rod Grams | 39% | 37% | 22% | 2% |
Results
QUESTION: If the 2000 election for Minnesota's U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for Mark Dayton, the Democrat; Rod Grams, the Republican; James Gibson, the Independence Party candidate; or David Swan, the Constitution Party candidate?
| Region | Dayton | Grams | Gibson | Undecided |
| Statewide | 47% | 42% | 5% | 6% |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul | 48% | 39% | 6% | 6% |
| Rochester/Southeast | 42% | 44% | 3% | 11% |
| Southwest Minnesota | 41% | 48% | 5% | 6% |
| Northwest Minnesota | 38% | 54% | 3% | 5% |
| Duluth/Northeast | 54% | 34% | 7% | 6% |
By Gender
| Gender | Dayton | Grams | Gibson | Undecided |
| Men | 39% | 46% | 7% | 7% |
| Women | 54% | 37% | 4% | 5% |
By Ideology
| Gender | Dayton | Grams | Gibson | Undecided |
| Liberal | 84% | 8% | 3% | 5% |
| Moderate | 52% | 35% | 6% | 7% |
| Conservative | 14% | 77% | 5% | 4% |
QUESTION: Which of the following would you say is most influencing your vote in the Senate race: (ORDER ROTATED)
| Candidate | Response |
| The overall political philosophy of that candidate | 41% |
| That candidate's position on Medicare and Social Security | 13% |
| The background and experience of that candidate. | 12% |
| The personal character of that candidate. | 11% |
| That candidate's position on taxes and government spending. | 8% |
| That candidate's position on education | 8% |
| Other | 4% |
QUESTION: Do the political advertisements in the U.S. Senate race that criticize the opposing candidate help you evaluate the positions of the candidates?
| Option | Response |
| Yes | 14% |
| No | 83% |
| Don't Know/Not sure | 3% |
POLL METHODOLOGY
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers.A cross-section of exchanges were utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled.The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or gender grouping.
Sample Figures:
Men 310 (50%)
Women 315 (50%)
| Region | Interviews |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul | 350 interviews |
| Rochester/Southeast | 71 interviews |
| Southwest Minnesota | 64 interviews |
| Northwest Minnesota | 68 interviews |
| Duluth/Northeast | 72 interviews |
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Poll Copyright 2000, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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