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November 1, 2000
Analysis | Poll Results | Poll Methodology | Story | Previous Presidential Poll
Analysis
Democrat Al Gore and Republican George Bush are now in a virtual dead heat in Minnesota. Statewide, 44% of likely voters support Gore, while 41% back Bush, a significant 8% are for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, 1% favor Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan, and 6% are still undecided. Gore held a 47%-40% lead over Bush in September.
| Poll Date | Gore | Bush | Buchanan | Nader | Undecided |
| October 2000 | 44% | 41% | 1% | 8% | 6% |
| September 2000 | 47% | 40% | 1% | 4% | 8% |
| August 2000 | 48% | 40% | 1% | 3% | 8% |
| July 2000 | 40% | 43% | 3% | 5% | 9% |
| February 2000 | 43% | 40% | 4% | n/a | 13% |
| July 1999 | 39% | 44% | n/a | n/a | 17% |
The gender gap remains in Minnesota, with Gore holding a 49%-35% lead among women and Bush ahead 46%-39% with men.
Gore leads by 7 points in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area (46%-39%), has a narrower 44%-41% advantage in the Southeast, and is ahead by a wider 49%-33% margin in the Northeast. Bush leads 47%-38% in Southwest Minnesota and 49%-37% in Northwest.
Gore's narrowing lead can be attributed to increased support for Nader, whose backing jumped 4 points over the past month. Nader is doing the most damage to Gore in the Duluth/Iron Range region, where he is getting 11% of the vote. While Gore still leads in that area, Nader' s strength is pulling Gore's margin down.
Bush's personal popularity has increased over the past month. Statewide, Bush's favorable name recognition (43%) is now almost on par with Gore's (44%). More interesting, is the fact that Gore's negatives have jumped 8 points and are now higher than Bush's (37%-33%).
Name Recognition
| Al Gore | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| July '99 | 37% | 39% | 24% | -- |
| July '00 | 34% | 34% | 32% | -- |
| August '00 | 46% | 27% | 27% | -- |
| September '00 | 43% | 29% | 28% | -- |
| October '00 | 44% | 37% | 19% | -- |
Name Recognition
| George W. Bush | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| July 1999 | 46% | 16% | 38% | -- |
| July 2000 | 39% | 26% | 34% | 1% |
| August 2000 | 37% | 32% | 30% | 1% |
| September 2000 | 37% | 30% | 33% | -- |
| October 2000 | 43% | 33% | 24% | - |
Gore's visit to Minnesota may have shored up his support, and the state's voting history in presidential elections suggests it should lean towards the Democrat. However, the closeness of the race here so late in the campaign could be an indicator that Gore's campaign is having trouble. If Bush wins Minnesota, it may indicate a wide electoral college win for the GOP nominee.
Statewide Name Recognition
| Candidate | Recognize Favorable | Recognize Unfavorable | Recognize Neutral | Don't Recognize |
| Al Gore | 44% | 37% | 19% | -- |
| George W. Bush | 43% | 33% | 24% | -- |
Results:
QUESTION: If the 2000 presidential election were held today, would you vote for:
- The Democratic ticket of Al Gore and Joe Lieberman?
- The Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney?
- The Reform Party ticket of Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster?
- The Green Party ticket of Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke?
| Region | Gore | Bush | Buchanan | Nader | Undecided |
| Statewide | 44% | 41% | 1% | 8% | 6% |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul | 46% | 39% | 1% | 7% | 6% |
| Rochester/Southeast | 44% | 41% | 1% | 6% | 8% |
| Southwest Minnesota | 38% | 47% | 2% | 8% | 6% |
| Northwest Minnesota | 37% | 49% | 1% | 7% | 6% |
| Duluth/Northeast | 49% | 33% | 1% | 11% | 6% |
| Gender | Gore | Bush | Buchanan | Nader | Undecided |
| Men | 39% | 46% | 2% | 9% | 4% |
| Women | 49% | 35% | 1% | 6% | 9% |
QUESTION: Have the presidential debates made you think:
| Issue | Response |
| More highly of George W. Bush | 24% |
| More highly of Al Gore | 16% |
| More highly of Bush and Gore | 7% |
| Not made you think more highly of either Bush or Gore | 40% |
| Don't Know/Refused/Did not watch | 13% |
QUESTION: Does
the current state of the U.S. economy make you more likely to vote for
Bush, more likely to vote
for Gore, or does it have no real effect on your vote?
| Candidate | Response |
| More likely Gore | 30% |
| More likely Bush | 15% |
| No effect | 53% |
| Not sure | 2% |
QUESTION: Does
the current situation in the Middle East make you more likely to vote for
Bush, more likely to
vote for Gore, or does it have no real effect on your vote?
| Candidate | Response |
| More likely Gore | 23% |
| More likely Bush | 21% |
| No effect | 54% |
| Not sure | 2% |
POLL METHODOLOGY
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers.A cross-section of exchanges were utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled.The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or gender grouping.
Sample Figures:
Men 310 (50%)
Women 315 (50%)
| Region | Interviews |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul | 350 interviews |
| Rochester/Southeast | 71 interviews |
| Southwest Minnesota | 64 interviews |
| Northwest Minnesota | 68 interviews |
| Duluth/Northeast | 72 interviews |
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Poll Copyright 2000, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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