MPR: Poll: Rybak leads Sayles Belton

Campaign 2001

Poll: Rybak leads Sayles Belton
By Art Hughes, Minnesota Public Radio
November 1, 2001
Part of MPR's online coverage of Campaign 2001

Political newcomer R.T. Rybak leads Minneapolis Mayor Sharon Sayles Belton in a poll conducted by Minnesota Public Radio and the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Rybak has a 12-point lead among likely voters in the city. But 14 percent of those polled say they haven't made up their minds.

See complete poll results.

Rybak is the choice for 49 percent of likely voters asked who they'd pick if the election were held today. Thirty-seven percent picked Sayles Belton. Mason Dixon Polling and Research contacted 406 likely Minneapolis voters last Friday through Monday.

Mason Dixon's Brad Coker says despite a large pool of undecided voters, the numbers indicate the eight-year incumbent is in trouble. "Usually undecided voters tend to break more strongly toward challengers than incumbents. So anytime an incumbent is trailing in a race this late in the campaign, it's usually a pretty strong indication they're headed for defeat," he said.

Coker says another potential sign of trouble is a mixed favorability rating for Sayles Belton. Sayles Belton has a favorable name recognition with 38 percent of respondents, but another 32 percent give her an unfavorable rating. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.

Gustavus Adolphus political science department chair Chris Gilbert agrees the numbers are good news for Rybak's campaign. "That is obviously a fairly large gap and even with the margin of error that suggests that Sayles Belton is no better than eight or nine points behind, it's still a deficit. And talking those undecided voters into swaying all for the candidate on the down side of those numbers is a difficult task," he said.

Rybak outpolled the mayor at the last ballot of the city democratic endorsing convention in May and came out on top in September's primary election. He says he's pleased the poll favors his campaign. But he says it's no time to be complacent. "I think we've surprised people at every stage of this campaign, but I have to caution people that elections like this are terribly unpredictable so we take absolutely nothing for granted until election night," Rybak said.

Sayles Belton's campaign questions how firm the numbers are for Rybak given his relatively recent appearance on the political scene. Sayles Belton supporters say their internal polls indicate the mayor is ahead among dedicated voters. Sayles Belton likens this race to her campaign for her first term as mayor in 1993 against fellow DFLer John Derus. She says many people assumed she would lose.

"We were sweating bullets every day. But we, of course, won that election. But it was a tough campaign. I think in the final analysis the people who strongly support the progress that we've made in the city will show up in the polls and vote and we'll win," Sayles Belton said.

South Minneapolis resident Tom Nordby is among the 14 percent who say they haven't made up their minds. Nordby says he leans toward a Republican philosophy and probably won't make up his mind until he's in the voting booth. "It's a question of voting for change or going with the status quo and at this point I am undecided. I've never been undecided in a municipal election at this late juncture," he said.

Nordby says he supports downtown development, including the Target store and Block E projects championed by the Sayles Belton administration. He says he would also support a subsidized downtown grocery store, another idea Sayles Belton supports. But Nordby says both candidates are qualified and he may decide it's time for new leadership.

Rybak's support is more pronounced among men. Fifty-three percent of men support Rybak compared to 32 percent for Sayles Belton. Sayles Belton, an African American, has substantially more support among blacks - 81 percent. But the black population makes up a relatively small percentage of the population and, as a group, blacks in Minneapolis traditionally have lower voter turnout.

Housing is the top campaign issue for 29 percent of respondents. Quality of public schools comes in second with 21 percent. Property taxes is third followed by crime and drugs. Opinion is mixed over downtown development. Forty-five percent say the city is striking the right balance between downtown and neighborhood issues, while 44 percent say the city pays too much attention to downtown.

Those polled overwhelmingly say the terrorist attacks of September 11 play little role in picking the mayor. Eighty-three percent say the important issues facing the city have not changed.

	Sign up to receive e-mail newsletters

	Audio help

	Text: Sm : Md : Lg