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MPR poll results: Presidential race

QUESTION: Do you recognize the names of these individuals who may be candidates for public office in 2004? Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of that individual?

Option
Recognize favorable
Recognize unfavorable
Recognize neutral
Don't recognize
George W. Bush
44%
39%
17%
- %
John Kerry
43%
25%
31%
1%
Ralph Nader
17%
49%
32%
2%

QUESTION: If the 2004 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader, an independent?

Option
State
Men
Women
Bush
41%
46%
37%
Kerry
44%
40%
47%
Nader
2%
2%
3%
Undecided
13%
12%
13%

Option
2000 Bush voters
2000 Gore voters
2000 Nader voters
Bush
85%
7%
4%
Kerry
6%
81%
48%
Nader
1%
- %
32%
Undecided
8%
11%
16%

Option
Henn/Ramsey
TC suburbs
Roch/SE
SW Minn
NW Minn
Duluth/NE
Bush
35%
45%
46%
48%
50%
34%
Kerry
54%
37%
37%
33%
36%
51%
Nader
2%
2%
1%
3%
5%
1%
Undecided
9%
15%
16%
15%
9%
14%

QUESTION: For whom would you vote if the only candidates on the ballot were George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat?

Option
State
Men
Women
Bush
41%
46%
37%
Kerry
45%
41%
48%
Undecided
14%
13%
15%

QUESTION: Do you think it is reasonably possible that you might change your presidential vote before the November election, or not?

Option
State
Bush voters
Kerry voters
Yes/might
21%
22%
20%
No/probably not
79%
78%
80%

QUESTION: For whom did you vote in the 2000 presidential election?

Option
Result
Gore
44%
Bush
42%
Nader
4%
Someone else
1%
Did not vote
2%
Not sure/refused
7%

QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of George W. Bush as president?

Option
State
Men
Women
Excellent
13%
15%
11%
Good
31%
34%
28%
Fair
29%
28%
30%
Poor
27%
23%
31%

QUESTION: Of the following issues, which one do you feel will be most influential in your voting decision in the November election for national offices, such as president and the U.S. House?

Option
Result
The economy, jobs and unemployement
33%
The situation in Iraq
21%
Homeland security and the war on terror
11%
Health care
9%
Social Security and Medicare
8%
Moral issues and family values
7%
Education
5%
Environment
2%
Other/not sure
4%

QUESTION: Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to the economy and unemployment?

Option
Result
Bush
38%
Kerry
41%
Nader
3%
Not sure
15%

QUESTION: Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to the situation in Iraq?

Option
Result
Bush
44%
Kerry
37%
Nader
1%
Not sure
18%

QUESTION: Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to homeland security and terrorism?

Option
Result
Bush
49%
Kerry
32%
Nader
1%
Not sure
18%


POLL METHODOLOGY

The Mason-Dixon Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. May 24 through May 26, 2004. A total of 625 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they regularly vote in state elections.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or gender grouping.

Sample Figures:

Men 309 (49%)
Women 316 (51%)

Region Interviews
Hennepin/Ramsey counties 210 interviews
Twin Cities suburbs 150 interviews
Rochester/Southeast 70 interviews
Southwest Minnesota 60 interviews
Northwest Minnesota 64 interviews
Duluth/Northeast 71 interviews

PLEASE NOTE: This report is the property of Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. It is not for duplication and/or redistribution. Copies of this report are available only through subscription. Subscribers are prohibited from providing this document to any third party. Any party in an unauthorized possession, engaging in unauthorized use. or involved in the unauthorized duplication or transmission of this document is subject to all applicable criminal and civil penalties.

Poll Copyright 2004, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved


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