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Coveted swing voters could determine presidential election
by Laura McCallum, Minnesota Public Radio
June 25, 2004

The Kerry campaign's Minnesota communications director, Stacie Paxton, said undecided voters are critical. (MPR Photo/Laura McCallum)

A new nationwide survey by the Pew Research Center finds about a fifth of registered voters haven't decided who they'll vote for in this year's presidential race. That's down from the percentage of swing voters at this point in the last three presidential campaigns. The number is still a significant segment of the electorate, and one that could determine the election in battleground states like Minnesota.

St. Paul, Minn. — Rick Morris is one of the swing voters that the presidential campaigns are actively courting. He's 56 years old. He's a florist in Waseca. He's married with three adult children, and he has no idea who he'll vote for.

"Frankly, I don't like either one of them!" said Morris.

Morris said he doesn't like Democrat John Kerry's economic policies. As a small business owner, he said he doesn't agree with Kerry's call for a higher minimum wage. He said Republican President George W. Bush is "too hawkish," and thinks the president was too quick to declare war on Iraq.

"So I'm really up in the air on this one," said Morris.

Morris voted for Bush in the last presidential election. He considers himself an independent. He voted for Jesse Ventura and Tim Penny in the last two gubernatorial elections.

The Bush and Kerry campaigns hope to win over voters like Morris in the remaining four months of the campaign. The Kerry campaign's Minnesota communications director, Stacie Paxton, said undecided voters are critical.

"Minnesota, like the rest of the nation, is really polarized right now," Paxton said. "There's a really small segment that I believe is going to determine the outcome of this election."

The Pew survey found about 21 percent of registered voters nationwide are undecided. The number appears to be even smaller in Minnesota. The latest Minnesota Public Radio-St. Paul Pioneer Press poll conducted a month ago found 13 percent undecided, and the race between Bush and Kerry essentially a dead heat. The Bush campaign's regional spokeswoman, Tracey Schmitt, said in battleground states, swing voters matter.

"I wouldn't say right now that I would not vote for either candidate. I'd like to see them maybe do a little bit of work on what they're trying to accomplish." - Undecided voter Erik Shetney

"In a state where it was so close last time, as was the case in Minnesota, literally, every vote counts," Schmitt said. "We are going to be targeting and reaching out to every voter, particularly and including undecideds."

Bush lost Minnesota by less than three-percentage points in 2000. The Bush and Kerry campaigns are using a variety of methods to try to identify swing voters. Republicans are asking party activists to talk to their neighbors and find out who they support for president. That information is compiled in a huge database that will track undecided voters. Both Republicans and Democrats are doing grassroots politics -- door knocking, phone calls and house parties around the state.

Their efforts haven't yet reached Erik Shetney, another undecided voter. Shetney is 33 years old. He lives in northeast Minneapolis. He works for a computer networking company, is married and has no kids.

Shetney's views don't fall neatly in any category. He thinks President Bush did a good job of handling 9-11, but he doesn't like Bush's support for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. He likes Kerry's call for health care reform, but is upset about Kerry's vote to support a ban on some semi-automatic guns. Shetney said he wants to see more detail from both candidates on their policies.

"I wouldn't say right now that I would not vote for either candidate," Shetney said. "I'd like to see them maybe do a little bit of work on what they're trying to accomplish."

Shetney said he realizes that he's the type of voter that both campaigns would like to persuade. But he said he hasn't been contacted by campaign volunteers.

"That's one of the reasons I pay for a telephone service that drops anonymous telephone calls at home," said Shetney, laughing. "The 2000 election is right when I started paying for it. All my friends were getting three and four a day ,and we didn't get a single one."

Shetney said he gets his political news from a variety of places, including online and international sources. He said he'll pay close attention to the campaign in the coming months, and isn't sure, ultimately, how he'll make up his mind.

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