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MPR Poll results: Presidential race
July 19, 2004

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QUESTION: Do you recognize the names of these individuals who may be candidates for public office in 2004? Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of that individual?

Option	Recognize favorable	Recognize unfavorable	Recognize neutral	Don't recognize
George W. Bush	45%	36%	19%	- %
John Kerry	41%	34%	24%	1%
Ralph Nader	11%	47%	39%	3%
John Edwards	43%	27%	26%	4%
Dick Cheney	39%	41%	19%	1%

QUESTION: If the 2004 presidential election were held today, would you vote for:
-- The Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards,
-- The Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney,
-- The independent ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo?

Option	State	Men	Women
Bush	44%	49%	39%
Kerry	45%	42%	48%
Nader	2%	2%	2%
Undecided	9%	7%	11%

Option	Henn/Ramsey	TC suburbs	Roch/SE	SW Minn	NW Minn	Duluth/NE
Bush	38%	52%	44%	50%	53%	36%
Kerry	54%	37%	40%	36%	37%	52%
Nader	2%	1%	1%	2%	2%	1%
Undecided	6%	10%	15%	12%	8%	11%

QUESTION: For whom would you vote if the only candidates on the ballot were George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat?

Option	State	Men	Women
Bush	45%	50%	40%
Kerry	48%	44%	52%
Undecided	7%	6%	8%

QUESTION: Do you think it is reasonably possible that you might change your presidential vote before the November election, or not?

Option	State	Bush voters	Kerry voters
Yes/might	19%	19%	16%
No/probably not	81%	81%	84%

QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of George W. Bush as president?

Option	State	Men	Women
Excellent	18%	25%	11%
Good	29%	30%	28%
Fair	26%	20%	32%
Poor	27%	25%	29%

QUESTION: Of the following issues, which one do you feel will be most influential in your voting decision in the November election for national offices, such as president and the U.S. House?

Option	Result
The economy, jobs and unemployment	30%
The situation in Iraq	27%
Moral issues and family values	12%
Homeland security and the war on terror	11%
Health care	7%
Social Security and Medicare	4%
Education	2%
Environment	1%
Other/not sure	6%

QUESTION: Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to the economy and unemployment?

Option	Result
Bush	42%
Kerry	42%
Nader	3%
Not sure	13%

QUESTION: Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to the situation in Iraq?

Option	Result
Bush	51%
Kerry	39%
Nader	3%
Not sure	7%

QUESTION: Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to homeland security and terrorism?

Option	Result
Bush	53%
Kerry	35%
Nader	2%
Not sure	10%

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POLL METHODOLOGY

The Mason-Dixon Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. July 12 through July 14, 2004. A total of 625 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they regularly vote in state elections.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or gender grouping.

Sample Figures:

Men 308 (49%)
Women 317 (51%)

Region	Interviews
Hennepin/Ramsey counties	210 interviews
Twin Cities suburbs	150 interviews
Rochester/Southeast	70 interviews
Southwest Minnesota	60 interviews
Northwest Minnesota	64 interviews
Duluth/Northeast	71 interviews

PLEASE NOTE: This report is the property of Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. It is not for duplication and/or redistribution. Copies of this report are available only through subscription. Subscribers are prohibited from providing this document to any third party. Any party in an unauthorized possession, engaging in unauthorized use. or involved in the unauthorized duplication or transmission of this document is subject to all applicable criminal and civil penalties.

Poll Copyright 2004, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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