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MPR Poll Results: The race for president
September 16, 2004
—
Favorability Ratings
| Candidate |
Recognize Favorable |
Recognize Unfavorable |
Recognize Neutral |
Don't Recognize |
49% |
38% |
13% |
-- |
|
40% |
39% |
21% |
-- |
|
7% |
47% |
43% |
3% |
QUESTION: If the 2004 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
| Region |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Undecided |
State |
46% |
44% |
1% |
9% |
Hennepin/Ramsey |
38% |
55% |
1% |
6% |
Twin Cities suburbs |
55% |
35% |
1% |
8% |
Rochester/Southeast |
51% |
40% |
-- |
9% |
Southwest Minnesota |
50% |
37% |
-- |
13% |
Northwest Minnesota |
54% |
32% |
-- |
14% |
Duluth/Northeast |
36% |
52% |
3% |
10% |
| Result by gender |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Undecided |
Men |
48% |
43% |
1% |
8% |
Women |
44% |
45% |
1% |
10% |
QUESTION: For whom would you vote if the only candidates on the ballot were George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat?
|
Option |
State |
Men |
Women |
Bush |
46% |
48% |
44% |
Kerry |
45% |
44% |
46% |
Undecided |
9% |
8% |
10% |
QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of George W. Bush as president?
|
Option |
State |
Men |
Women |
Excellent |
21% |
24% |
18% |
Good |
31% |
33% |
29% |
Fair |
21% |
19% |
23% |
Poor |
26% |
23% |
29% |
Undecided |
1% |
1% |
1% |
QUESTION: Of the following issues, which one do you feel will be the most influential in your voting decision in the November election for national offices, such as president and the U.S. House?
|
Option |
Response |
The economy, jobs, and unemployment |
28% |
Homeland security and the war on terror |
19% |
The situation in Iraq |
17% |
Moral issues and family values |
13% |
Health care |
9% |
Education |
6% |
Social Security and Medicare |
3% |
Environment |
3% |
Not sure |
3% |
QUESTION: Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to the economy and unemployement?
| Option |
Result |
Bush |
45% |
Kerry |
44% |
Nader |
4% |
Not sure |
7% |
QUESTION: Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to the situation in Iraq?
| Option |
Result |
Bush |
51% |
Kerry |
37% |
Nader |
1% |
Not sure |
11% |
QUESTION: Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to homeland security and terrorism?
| Option |
Result |
Bush |
56% |
Kerry |
35% |
Nader |
-- |
Not sure |
9% |
QUESTION: Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to family values?
| Option |
Result |
Bush |
54% |
Kerry |
36% |
Nader |
1% |
Not sure |
9% |
QUESTION: In making your decision about who to vote for for president, how important is the discussion about John Kerry's military record during the Vietnam War era?
| Option |
Result |
Very important |
7% |
Somewhat important |
18% |
Not too important |
23% |
Not important |
52% |
QUESTION: In general, what do you tend to think about John Kerry's performance during the Vietnam War?
| Option |
Result |
It was admirable |
30% |
I have concerns about what he did |
23% |
It doesn't matter to me |
42% |
Not sure |
5% |
QUESTION: In making your decision about who to vote for for president, how important is the discussion about George Bush's military record during the Vietnam War era?
| Option |
Result |
Very important |
9% |
Somewhat important |
14% |
Not too important |
22% |
Not important |
54 |
Not sure |
1% |
QUESTION: In general, what do you tend to think about George Bush's performance during the Vietnam War?
| Option |
Result |
It was admirable |
9% |
I have concerns about what he did |
14% |
It doesn't matter to me |
68% |
Not sure |
9% |
POLL METHODOLOGY
The Mason-Dixon Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. September 11 through September 14, 2004. A total of 625 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or gender grouping.
Sample Figures:
Men 310(50%)
Women 315 (50%)
| Region | Interviews |
| Hennepin/Ramsey counties | 210 interviews |
| Twin Cities suburbs | 150 interviews |
| Rochester/Southeast | 70 interviews |
| Southwest Minnesota | 60 interviews |
| Northwest Minnesota | 65 interviews |
| Duluth/Northeast | 70 interviews |
PLEASE NOTE: This report is the property of Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, Inc. It is not for duplication and/or redistribution. Copies of this report are available only through subscription. Subscribers are prohibited from providing this document to any third party. Any party in an unauthorized possession, engaging in unauthorized use. or involved in the unauthorized duplication or transmission of this document is subject to all applicable criminal and civil penalties.
Poll Copyright 2004, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research,
Inc. All Rights Reserved