Audio Poll says Rybak leads McLaughlin (story audio) Photos Minneapolis City Hall O'Halloran Undecided voter More from MPR Minneapolis candidates sharpen debate over crime and safety (10/28/2005) Rybak, McLaughlin spar over transit, public safety (10/06/2005) Rybak, McLaughlin advance in Minneapolis mayor race (09/14/2005) Tools E-mail this page Print this page Sponsor

Rybak leads McLaughlin by 9 percentage points. (MPR Photo/Tom Scheck)

A University of Minnesota poll shows Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak leading Hennepin County Commissioner Peter McLaughlin by 9 percentage points in the race for mayor of Minneapolis. Rybak's lead is greater than the poll's margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points. Rybak says the survey proves he's the best candidate to lead the city over the next four years. But McLaughlin says he's encouraged that the mayor has support from less than a majority of those polled.

Minneapolis, Minn. — Forty-four percent of the poll respondents support R.T. Rybak. 35 percent favor McLaughlin. The poll surveyed 371 likely voters between October 17th and 29th. Professor Larry Jacobs, who directed the poll for the U of M's Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, says Rybak has a significant lead at this point. But he says the large chunk of undecided voters will determine the outcome of the race.

"This remains a competitive race in which 21 percent of Minneapolis voters have yet to make up their mind," Jacobs said. "The mayor and Commissioner McLaughlin have their work cut out for them," according to Jacobs.

Jacobs says whichever candidate has the better get-out-the-vote effort will win on November 8th. The poll mirrors the September primary result, when Rybak received 44 percent of the vote to McLaughlin's 35 percent. Rybak praised the poll. He's especially happy that 58 percent of the respondents who say the city is headed in the right direction.

"I'm very pleased with that number," Rybak said. "It's great to be ahead. It's great to be ahead by a nice margin but not so much that people get lazy about it," he said.

Rybak's campaign manager said one of his biggest concerns is that Rybak's supporters will think he has a commanding lead and won't vote on election day. He says the campaign is doing everything possible to remind people like Shannon O'Halloran to vote on election day. O'Halloran was busy grading some dirt in her front lawn in this south Minneapolis neighborhood. An R.T. Rybak sign sits in her lawn right in front of where her new patio will be. O'Halloran says she's happy Rybak managed to keep the city's spending in check despite four years of state and federal budget cuts.

"There hasn't been anything to tell me we need a change," O'Halloran said. "He's been a good city manager and I think that's what we needed."

But challenger Peter McLaughlin says the poll indicates a majority of those surveyed don't think Rybak is getting the job done as mayor.

"The mayor still hasn't closed the deal with the people of Minneapolis," McLaughlin said. "Well over half, 56% of the people of Minneapolis are not ready to vote for this guy for mayor. That's what jumps out. That's the message of this poll."

McLaughlin says in order to win, he needs high voter turnout in places like North Minneapolis. McLaughlin is also relying on strong support from the city's unions. Forty-nine percent of the union members polled say they intend to vote for McLaughlin.

But professor Jacobs, with the Humphrey Institute, says union support in the city is shrinking. Since less than a third of those polled were in a union, Jacobs says unions don't have the clout that they once had.

Jim Niland, with the Association of Federal, State, County and Municipal Employees disagrees. He expects his union to continue knocking on doors and making phone calls on McLaughlin's behalf.

"Unions are more active in this race than they ever have been before," Niland said. "I think our clout and our strength has grown during the course of this race. This would not even be a race if it wasn't for the support of working families across Minneapolis and the support of the unions."

In the campaign's final days McLaughlin and Rybak will continue to make their case to undecided voters like Jerilyn Ezaki. Ezaki lives in South Minneapolis but was busy drinking coffee at the Bean Scene Coffee Shop in North Minneapolis. Ezaki says McLaughlin is doing good work as a county commissioner but she is worried he may be a part of the old DFL machine that ran the city in the past.

"What worries me is that McLaughlin may be too old school, too political," Ezaki said. And then I look at Mayor Rybak and I don't think I take him seriously enough."

Ezaki has a week to make up her mind. The two candidates are scheduled to hold one more debate and at least two more joint appearances over the next week.