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After making gains in the 2004 elections, DFLers could take control of the House from Republicans in 2006. (MPR file photo)

National and state Democratic leaders say the ouster of St. Paul Mayor Randy Kelly signals more victories for the party when voters go to the polls in next year's election. DFL-endorsed Chris Coleman trounced Kelly, a fellow DFLer who endorsed President Bush last year. Opinion polls indicate the endorsement was a major factor in Kelly's drubbing. Political analysts say there may be a DFL trend on the horizon, but caution against reading too much into it.

Minneapolis, Minn. — St. Paul Mayor-elect Chris Coleman and state DFL leaders aren't going so far as to say that Kelly's defeat was a referendum on President Bush. Instead, they say Coleman's campaigning on core DFL issues like education worked well in the heavily DFL city. But Coleman added that Republicans across the country should be nervous if they continue to back current Republican policies.

"They've been preaching this no-tax policy but taxes have gone up for homeowners and business owners across the cities," Coleman said. "We have been told that we're going to make a commitment to leave no child behind and yet we underfund St. Paul schools by $13 million. We were told there were weapons of mass destruction and obviously they weren't. You can fool some of the people some of the time, you can fool them for a while, but you can't fool them forever."

Coleman's election is just one of several Democratic victories across the nation. Voters in New Jersey and Virginia elected Democrats for governor.

DFL Party Chair Brian Melendez says it's hard to predict if DFLers will do well in 2006. But he says Tuesday's Democratic victories, combined* with President Bush's low approval ratings, have him confident.

"I don't draw a lot of long-term conclusions from the fact that DFLers won in strong DFL cities, but if you look around the country I think there is a trend going on. Democrats won the two governorships in New Jersey and Virginia. I think that the Bush message is not resonating well with voters," he said.

St. Olaf political science professor Dan Hofrenning says Democrats appear to have momentum, but voters can be fickle and change their support quickly.

"If you're betting today, you'd probably bet that the DFL will do well in 2006, but there's a lot of campaigning between now and next fall's election," he said.

Hofrenning says Republicans will improve their chances if President Bush's ratings go up and the situation in Iraq gets better. Hofrenning also expects Republicans in Minnesota will try to distance themselves from the president and the party platform.

Kay Wolsborn agrees. The political science professor at the College of St. Benedict and St. John's University says Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Republican Senate candidate Mark Kennedy will begin talking about issues that are important to Minnesota voters.

"Republicans are less likely, based on these results, to be seeking endorsements from national officeholders for the statewide races next year. My guess is that the strategists will take the information from yesterday's election results and say this is about state issues," she said.

Republican Party Chair Ron Carey says people who believe the DFL Party is gaining momentum in Minnesota are misguided. He says analysts should remember that no Republicans were on the ballot in St. Paul or Minneapolis.

Carey says another race in St. Cloud is a better indicator. That's where Republican State Sen. Dave Kleis defeated Democratic incumbent John Ellenbecker for mayor. Carey says DFLers who are happy about Kelly's defeat should remember that Kelly is a member of the DFL Party.

"The DFL was determined to make this into a partisan battleground for party discipline and I think the real losers are the citizens of St. Paul," he said. "It's one of those things as Republicans we didn't have a candidate on the ballot, but it's interesting how the Democrats are eating their own if they dare stray from the far left-wing dogma of the party."

Gov. Tim Pawlenty said last week that it was unfortunate that voters opposed Kelly because he endorsed a candidate from another party.

"I wish there was more room in our political system for people to say 'you know what? I agree with or disagree with the decision, but I respect his strength and conviction in taking that stand,'" he said.

Pawlenty says he intends to stand by President Bush even if his approval ratings fall to 2 percent among likely voters. The big question is whether voters across Minnesota will punish or praise Pawlenty and other Republicans for that loyalty in next year's election.